I believe Bush will win on the fact that the more moderate and conservative folks in this nation will realize that the Democratic party has finally gone to far to the left with its' radical social and foreign policy views.
If anything, it's the Republican party that's way off to the right. So is American politics in general. Look at almost any country in Europe. Their center-right parties look a lot like many of our Democrats.
Do you think Americans are really going to elect a Anti-War hippie during one of the greatest times of crisis in our history?
Calling Kerry an anti-war hippie is as stupid as calling Bush a stoner. It's irrelevant. I also dispute that this is some sort of huge crisis time. Even if there is one, Bush is certainly failing to cope with it. If it is a terrorism crisis (which is I think what you meant), well, we haven't got Osama or a lot of other top terrorists. I don't see how we could be doing much worse, unless there had been more attacks, but I think their absence is much more a sign of the terrorists' weakness than of our strength.