lilTommy
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,821
Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04
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« on: May 24, 2023, 08:53:45 AM » |
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Bonnie Crombie would have the most impact on the PCs but the NDP must also be wary, but a Crombie OLP is a big threat to the PCs
Crombie has already indicated that she feels the OLP is too left-leaning, and wants to return to the centre, looking more like Centre-Right fiscally but remaining socially progressive (ugh). This is a big threat to the PCs in the 905.
1) Crombie IS the voice of Peel but also greater 905, Mississauga is now much more in play, and Brampton too as the NDP is still strong there (NDP was second in two, and OLP 2nd in 3 seats, all three parties over/at the 20% in each seat) If the OLP is campaign to the right of the NDP they are pulling from the PCs, and this could lead to the NDP taking back at least Brampton East), York region seats are also going to be targeted, due to Crombie's name, but here you have mostly OLP/PC fights.
2) Crombie's Name alone give her an edge, this is where the NDP need to worry as Crombie is more well known then Stiles due to her profile outside of QP. BUT the saving grace to some degree for the NDP is that a Crombie OLP is playing in the PCs sandbox and not so much the NDPs... in Toronto that may mean the NDPs seats are mostly safe-ish as they are the most urban/progressive save SSW (safer then) and HRBC. Tor-SPs is one they have to watch too since it's been close twice now. This could mean YSW is also going to be close but lean-NDP. The PCs have to worry about mid-town like EL, most of North York and perhaps Etobicoke spillover, particularly Et.Lakeshore. Basically all their Toronto seats.
I'm not sure what impact Crombie would have in say Eastern Ontario/Ottawa? Nepean and GPR would likely fall with a stronger leader for the OLP.
Crombie OLP, I know they want a Federal 2015 to happen and there is precedent for the Liberals to rise again, If they hold their vote which was second (FPTP hurt them bad) can they gaining in the 905, Toronto? Yes and enough to create a minority. Enough to win outright, probably not. BUT the OLP is loath to allow the NDP to lead a minority, but that means PC minority again, which "devil" are they willing to side with. LOL
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