Canada Federal Representation 2024

[lilTommy]

The B.C. report is out.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/bc/rprt/index_e.aspx

Here are some better maps:

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/bc/rprt/othaut/p3_e.aspx


It features the first federal riding named after a Borg: Vancouver Arbutus.

Jagmeet Singh may have to fly back to Brampton.

Two Kamloops ridings are twice the fun!

Of the 43 ridings, 32 are within 5% of the provincial quotient, 10 are between 5%-10%, and just one (Skeena--Bulkley Valley) is beyond 10%.

Why would Jagmeet Singh need to go anywhere when the new Burnaby Central seat overlaps a lot with his current seat and may even be better for him

Agreed, Jagmeet would run in Burnaby Central, Peter Julian would still stay in BNWM (if he runs again). In fact Vancouver Fraserview-South Burnaby isn't that bad for the NDP, If I ridingbuilt it correct (the booths don't look to be the same but best guess here), that about 42% LPC 31% NDP in large part thanks to Burnaby being added.

Vancouver West Broadway is also better for the NDP at a similar vote spread 40% LPC 31 NDP; Vancouver Centre also at 41% LPC 30% NDP... is that right? the number being SO similar? 

The NDP have to worry more about the elimination of South Okanagan—West Kootenay; it looks like the new Similkameen-West Kootenay is a razor edge NDP seat, 39% to CPC 37%; Columbia-Kootenay-Southern Rookies is about the same even with added territory, so still worth targetting. 

[lilTommy]

Vancouver West Broadway is also better for the NDP at a similar vote spread 40% LPC 31 NDP; Vancouver Centre also at 41% LPC 30% NDP... is that right? the number being SO similar?  

The NDP have to worry more about the elimination of South Okanagan—West Kootenay; it looks like the new Similkameen-West Kootenay is a razor edge NDP seat, 39% to CPC 37%; Columbia-Kootenay-Southern Rookies is about the same even with added territory, so still worth targetting.  

Keep in mind that these new seats will create very new dynamics. For example, there is a lot of natural NDP territory in Kitsilano (David Eby's provincial seat) in the new Vancouver West Broadway that was not really tapped in the last few elections when it was all part of the totally unwinnable Vancouver-Quadra seat - so the NDP vote in that area is likely a lot higher than last election results would indicate. Similarly, Vancouver South was never a winnable seat for the NDP but the easternmost part of it that is now merged with a chunk of Burnaby is solidly NDP provincially and could all yield more votes than the 2021 poll by poll results in that area would suggest.

I call this the "assimilation effect" - when redistribution puts an area in a new riding with totally different dynamics and all of a sudden the party you might have voted for in the past but didn't because they were not competitive in the seat, is now no longer a wasted vote.

Bang-on; the NDP almost won Van-Granville and this distribution does benefit the NDP in Vancouver. As you say, the NDP can put greater focus on candidate and money, ground-game in three more Vancouver seats (If only Hedy Fry would retire in Van-Centre LOL) all with a path for NDP wins.

[lilTommy]

Vancouver Granville - That's very true, local issues matter. So if we look at probably the most non-local election here, 2015, the NDP still pulled in 26% (2019 was when Wilson-Raybould ran and won as an indie so not the best comparison)

BC is interesting in that sense; with no devoted centrist Liberal party, the last election looked like the NDP captured all of the left and centre vote. Mileslunn, as someone in BC, best guess, what would be the split of the provincial NDP vote federally? maybe 60/40 of the BCNDP vote would go LPC then NDP?
Regardless, the federal NDP is impacted by their provincial wing, maybe more then any other, and right now the BCNDP are still very popular (47% support them based on the last poll from December)

I agree with Hatman on Kelwona; what on earth was their justification for that? these types of gerrymandering should be a just avoided at all costs! On the provincial side they are trying that with Mallardville in Coquitlam, but look at this map, it does a better job of "community of interest" then the provincial redistribution. This is just nasty... I really hope MPs try and fight that one

[lilTommy]

https://twitter.com/drowldr/status/1625567614574514176

maps (heart)
Looks like the NDP is -1 with Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing gone. the new SSM-Algoma would be a fight between two incumbents if Carole Hughes (NDP) and Terry Sheehan (LPC) both run. Interestingly enough the new seat, under 2021 vote, would go CPC and not to either incumbent party.

[lilTommy]

Carole Hughes already lives in Nickel Belt.

Hmmm... that might actually be a better fit for her/NDP

[lilTommy]

Krago, what are your thoughts on the impact of the changes to University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York (now Toronto-Waterfront)?

I think the Commission did a fine job in downtown Toronto.  Putting Chinatown back together in the same riding, and using the Gardiner instead of The Esplanade makes sense.

I would fix Castle Frank Cres, and it looks like the Atlantic Ave extension cuts through 47 Sudbury Ave and 1090 King St W.



I would also drop the name 'Spadina' since it doesn't include either the Spadina Museum, Spadina Road, Spadina Station, Spadina Cres, or much of Spadina Ave.  'Muddy York', anyone?   

Ya that's a tough area, it would make more sense to tack west on Sudbury to Abell then south to the tracks? would be a funny little wing but cleaner. But it looks like there is an alley just west of 47 Sudbury so that should be where that border goes. A straight line looks good on paper, but in that area it just might not work?

Yes, the riding name should include "Fort York" in the name... Toronto Fort York, or Fort York-Harbourfront.

[lilTommy]

Why was Spadina kept in the riding name last time anyway? They could've kept Trinity instead, as it still contained Trinity-Bellwoods Park.

I KNOW! Trinity-Fort York makes/made more sense; "Spadina" always should have been kept in the northern portion, so Spadina-Rosedale to me would have been better then University-Rosedale.

[lilTommy]

Here are the results of the 2022 Ontario Provincial Election transposed onto the new federal boundaries in Northern Ontario.

New Federal Riding	Margin	PC	NDP	LIB	GRN	NB+ONT	OTH
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	PC +14.2%	51.0%	36.8%	4.7%	2.5%	4.2%	0.8%
Kenora—Kiiwetinoong	PC +24.4%	53.0%	28.6%	9.7%	3.9%	3.9%	0.9%
Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	NDP +15.5%	31.7%	47.2%	9.3%	4.8%	6.7%	0.4%
Nipissing—Timiskaming	PC +12.3%	46.1%	33.7%	11.5%	3.4%	3.9%	1.4%
Parry Sound—Muskoka	PC +4.7%	45.4%	7.7%		40.6%	5.7%	0.6%
Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma	PC +2.9%	42.9%	40.0%	7.0%	2.8%	4.8%	2.5%
Sudbury	NDP +13.2%	29.6%	42.9%	17.3%	4.6%	4.1%	1.5%
Thunder Bay—Rainy River	PC +7.3%	39.4%	32.1%	21.6%	3.0%	3.3%	0.6%
Thunder Bay—Superior North	NDP +2.5%	31.6%	34.1%	27.8%	2.9%	2.7%	1.0%

Last year, the NDP won 7 of the 13 existing provincial ridings and the PCs won 6.  Using the new federal ridings, the PCs would win 6 seats and the NDP would be reduced to three.

What are the odds that Doug Ford will adopt the 122 new federal ridings as Ontario's new provincial electoral map without any changes?  What are the odds that it survives a court challenge?

What are the odds that Doug Ford will adopt the 122 new federal ridings as Ontario's new provincial electoral map without any changes?  
-> 50/50; While I can see DoFo loving that Toronto will lose a riding, especially a Liberal one, reducing Northern Ontario from 13 to 9, might look good on paper with the NDP losing 3, but my assumption is that the PCs would face a HUGE backlash against that decision and may actually end up losing seats due to a perceived anti-north "attack". It wouldn't take much, as 3 of their 6 were won with less then a 10% margin. I could see him leave the North as is, and adopt most of the changes for Southern Ontario though (if that worked) But maybe not since that would add more seats and we all know DoFo ain't a fan of elected representation.

What are the odds that it survives a court challenge?
-> 0; Nova Scotia lost their redistribution which attempted to eliminate Acadian ridings in 2017 I think. The two seats created in 2018 for N.ON were for communities of interest.