Newfoundland and Labrador election, 2019

[lilTommy]

http://ntv.ca/mqo-poll-finds-economy-health-care-as-top-issues-middling-opinions-of-party-leaders/?fbclid=IwAR3ldrXo19iY78raSJzYvweHlwQAsWfX5NHrNBLRi4cslkf_wpf2wzAidqA

The NDP has a long way to rebuild, in Feb 2018 they were at 24%, vs the last polling from Feb 2019 which has them at 16%. But the above news story/MQO polling has NDP leader Coffin polling better then Ball or Crosbie in all of the indicators.

[lilTommy]

Deadline for nominations today, and so far the NDP have nominated a grand total of...  five candidates.

What the actual f**k? They could've been competitive this time...

What's the Why here? early election call? New leaders? sad though, really sad.. here's hoping they can get 35 nominations in, today P

[lilTommy]

Looks like the NDP managed to get 14 Nominations out... well that's something:

http://www.nl.ndp.ca/news/nl-ndp-announces-candidates-for-provincial-election?fbclid=IwAR0v_M69XKAIOnlDGjWmWtdSiUtnl_QtogJ9bYLr_tx3TKVoKCXoto0z7Uk

Looks like only 3 candidates though, are not on the Avalon:
Corner Brook, Humber – Bay of Islands, Labrador West (the only realistic seat of the bunch i'd guess)

Mount Pearl North
Mount Pearl – Southlands
Mount Scio --- (MAYBE, NDP was at 27% in 2015, second)
St. John’s Centre --- (NDP should HOLD)
St. John’s East – Quidi Vidi --- (NDP should HOLD)
St. John’s West --- (MAYBE, but 2015 NDP leader ran here so probably bumped up some)
Virginia Waters – Pleasantville
Waterford Valley --- in 2015, Allison Coffin was the candidate. PCs only won 14%, NDP 19%
Windsor Lake --- PC Leaders seat so NO

2-5 Seats for the NDP, best case

[lilTommy]

Elections NL only shows 13: https://www.elections.gov.nl.ca/elections/resources/pdf/releases/NR%20-%20Officially%20Nominated%20Candidates%20for%20the%202019%20Provincial%20General%20Election.pdf

No candidate in Mount Pearl North.

Fewest NDP candidates since 1972, when they ran 4, winning 0.2% of the vote!

The last poll had the NDP at 16%, which is actually better than they did last election! But, obviously not having that many candidates will hurt their numbers. I do wonder how pollsters will treat this situation; most voters won't have an NDP candidate on the ballot, but you still need to ask, as they can still win seats in St. John's.

NDP better update their site/news release then!

If there is any positive, this allows the NDP to focus their volunteers/resources (at least in Labrador West, their only candidate in Labrador!) and bring in volunteers from outside of the Avalon to work in the other 10 seats with Candidates.
AND they nominated more then NL Alliance, so there ya go

[lilTommy]

Using the link https://www.elections.gov.nl.ca/elections/resources/pdf/releases/NR%20-%20Officially%20Nominated%20Candidates%20for%20the%202019%20Provincial%20General%20Election.pdf - factoring in the error for the NDP

Liberal-PC only - 14
- Torngat Mountains
- Stephenville – Port au Port
- Placentia West – Bellevue
- Lewisporte – Twillingate
- Humber – Gros Morne
- Harbour Grace – Port de Grave
- Grand Falls-Windsor – Buchans
- Gander
- Fortune Bay – Cape La Hune
- Fogo Island - Cape Freels
- Conception Bay East – Bell Island
- Cartwright – L’Anse au Clair
- Burin – Grand Bank
- Burgeo – La Poile
- Bonavista

Liberal-NDP only - 1
- Waterford Valley

Liberal-PC-Alliance (no NDP) - 6
- Baie Verte – Green Bay
- Conception Bay South
- Harbour Main
- St. George’s – Humber
- Terra Nova
- Topsail – Paradise

Liberal-PC-NDP - 6
- Windsor Lake
- Virginia Waters - Pleasantville
- St. John’s East – Quidi Vidi
- St. John's Centre
- St. John's West
- Labrador West

Liberal-PC-NDP-Alliance - 3
- Cape St. Francis
- Mount Scio
- Mount Pearl North

[lilTommy]

The debate was tonight, you can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdgzMGEQJ_s

Ball was feisty, Coffin held her own and got in some good zingers on both, Crosbie was too slow and kept backing down when challenged.

That does not sound good for Crosbie, you can't attract new voters that way. We've seen on a couple occasions that Debates can help turn tides (I'm thinking 2015 Fed, 2018 ON).
Glad to see Coffin did well for being the leaders for about, what a month or two now.
"feisty" can be good or bad... if he came off confident and competent then that's good, but if he was aggressive and angry, probably not that great.

Perhaps there will be polling post debate?

[lilTommy]

Abacus:

PC: 42
Lib: 37
NDP: 15

So, actually an interesting race developing.

And if the NDP is actually in the low teens, that should be enough to hang on to Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi.

Its hard to say - while its true the NDP is only running 14 candidates - the ridings where they are not running candidates are virtually all places where they only got low single digits in 2015. The Abacus poll says the NDP is at 19% in the Avalon peninsula, which includes St. John's. But the NDP vote is likely heavily concentrated in 3 or 4 inner St. John's seats. Also 2015 was a massive Liberal landslide whereas this time the Liberals have lost a ton of support to the PCs and that likely creates more fvaourable vote splits for the NDP in the two or three seats where they are in contention.

I'd also argue, the NDP have a decent shot at Labrador West, really their only candidate not on the Avalon with a shot at winning.

[lilTommy]

I'm sure a lot of that 15% are people who are expecting to vote NDP, but will be surprised to find out they have no candidate in that riding. So, in reality, we're talking about something much closer to 10%.

That will certainly be true of some people - but as i mentioned most (if not all) of the ridinsg that have no NDP candidate are also ridings where NDP support is typically close to non-existent in the first place.

- The NDP have candidates in all St. John's riding's (arguably where their strength is)
- 3 of the 6 riding's called "St.John's suburbs" have NDP candidates (Mount Pearl North having the best result at 24%, also held by PCs though so probably no)
- 1 of the 5 "Avalon Peninsula" riding's, and not one here really has any real strength based on past results. Harbour Main should have been a target, again in 2015 they pulled in 24%
- 2 of 7 in "Western NFLD" Corner Brooks (candidate in place) looked to have been their best result at about 17%
- 1 of 4 in Labrador, and arguably one of their highest targets at 34% in 2015 in Labrador West.

This is relatively a pretty strategic slate (still terrible not to run a full slate, but best they could do we know), I do think Gander could have been one to have tried to get a candidate in place for, the NDP won 25% in 2015, one of their stronger results outside the Avalon.

[lilTommy]

Keep in mind that in 2015 the popular vote in NL was:

Liberals  - 57%
PCs - 30%
NDP - 12%
Other - 1%

If you believe the Abacus poll the Liberals are down 20 points, PCs are up 12, NDP is up 3 and other is up 5

Compared to the 2011 election the PC are down 14 the NDP down 9 and the liberals up 18.

Looks like 2011 was a low mark for the Liberals and a high for the NDP:
PC - 56%
Liberal - 19% (still came second with 6 seats)
NDP - 24% (still came in third with 5 seats)

[lilTommy]

I still believe that the NDP will hold St. John's East - Quidi Vidi and St. John's Centre, especially if they are polling higher then 2015 in SJs.

I'm hopeful they can also win Labrador West, but that's a hopeful prediction.
Mount Scio is my long-shot prediction; Went NDP in 2011 (Dale Kirby bolted to the Liberals and was re-elected in 2015) some of the NDP-Kirby vote might migrate back, might.

Waterford Valley would be a surprise BUT this is a two-horse race with the Liberals and NDP, don't see that very often so, could surprise people if there is enough anti-Liberal, Anti-gov vote.

[lilTommy]

How can a minority government be "the most plausible outcome" when the NDP+Independents will be lucky to win more than 2 seats combined?

"[L]ucky to win more than 2 seats combined" is a bit melodramatic lol

It's not hard to see the NDP holding onto both their districts, with Coffin retaining the most orange seat in the province & the NDP holding onto a pretty urban area. That's 2 seats right there.

Independent-wise, Paul Lane can hold onto Mount Pearl-Southlands, & re: Joyce, I think name recognition & length of service will end up outweighing partisanship & political scandal, imo.

So, 2 NDP, 2 Indys; say the Libs walk out of election night with 19 seats to the PC's 17: boom, minority government.

At this point, I admit the NDP+Ind seat total max is 4 (most likely it will be 2-3 imo), but still, that's not enough to make a minority the most plausible outcome. Even with a tie PV. One party usually has a geographic advantage. Look at the 1989 election. Essentially it was a tied PV, but the Liberals won a 10 seat majority.  

It's a shame that's the case, but I agree that it is. A majority for either Ball or Crosbie would be a disaster. If you're wondering, I'm supporting the Conservatives this fall (although I'm not in Canada currently.)

If the PCs won a majority, they may still not have a single MLA from the Long Range Mountains/Labrador parts of the province. It should be an interesting night.

Because I'm a pedantic a$$hole, I have to point out that they're called MHAs in Newfoundland

Anyway, Newfoundland is prone to some wild swings, so expect the unexpected tonight.

NDP Sweep!! ... of all... ugh 14 riding's!

CBC has a news story about the election, depressing, basically no one interviewed liked anyone running, no one is talking realistic, etc etc... wondering if we might see a fairly low turn out?