Yukon election, 2016

[lilTommy]

The government will announce a date in October. I admit I mainly made this thread because I really wanted to draw attention to the last poll (back in February) with what must be the junk poll to end all junk polls:

Yukon Party (incumbent): 6
NDP: 11
Liberals: 22
Undecided: 61

amazing.

Anyway, Yukon's economy is not doing well due to the commodity collapse, so there might be some anti-incumbency against an incumbent party that has been floundering in various legal disputes lately. Yukon Party seem to be half-heartedly scaremongering about a carbon tax as their main strategy. The other two parties have ramped out platitudes.

Since there are only 19 seats, CBC has a list of the Candidates already:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yukon-election-candidates-list-2016-1.3707647

It's been since Feb since there was a poll, the Liberal federal election win was still pretty fresh, so I think we can factor in some federal Liberal honeymoon influence on this poll.
We'd need a new poll to really see what's the current, but it is looking more like a Liberal-NDP match up. Liberals have some disadvantage with only 1 MLA vs the NDPs 6 but in Territory elections anything can happen.

Some notables:
Pelly-Nisutlin - Elvis Presley is running as an Indie
Porter Creek Centre - former Speaker David Laxton who left the YP and is an Indie now (sounds like a pretty bitter split) might run again as an Indie which will split that right vote.
Vuntut Gwitchin - Looks like the NDP is at risk, again like 2011, of not running a candidate. This would be unfortunate since the NDP has a long history here. Held the riding from 1985-1992 then 1996-2006.

[lilTommy]

Basically, the Yukon is the size of Penticton BC (37,000 and change) and Whitehorse itself is the size of Brockville ON (23,000 and change)
The 8 non-Whitehorse seats cover about 14-15,000 people

[lilTommy]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-windeyer-1.3803561
CBC Pod cast on the Yukon Election:

Yukon Party - Strong base, not necessarily the underdogs. A personal opposition to Pasloski himself.
NDP - Strong incumbents and base, well liked, smart leader, runnign a decidedly left-wing plan.
Liberals - Very centrist this year, well liked leader as well

Major issue(s) YP opposes Carbon Pricing, wants to focus on it; Environment and Economy, First Nations relations will be major issues. Were does the anti-YP vote go? NDP more a factor here then the Federal election.

[lilTommy]

Vuntut Gwitchin - Looks like the NDP is at risk, again like 2011, of not running a candidate. This would be unfortunate since the NDP has a long history here. Held the riding from 1985-1992 then 1996-2006.

Vuntut Gwitchin has by far the smallest population of any riding.  In 2011, just 145 people voted in this riding, so with a voter base that small, it's not a surprise no individual is interested in running for the party, even if the NDP is in a good position to win this riding.

The NDP has appointed a parachute candidate, Skeeter Wright, to run here.  He was the NDP nominee in Copperbelt North in 2011 and lost the nomination in Mountainview this time around.

I hope Wright doesn't split the vote with the Liberals and allow Yukon Party party switching candidate Darius Elias to get reelected.

Pauline Frost is the Liberal nominee in Vuntut Gwitchin.  
http://www.ylp.ca/pauline_frost

At least the NDP managed to get their act together here, unlike in 2011 when they couldn't even get a parachute candidate.
Huh, so the sitting Liberal is now the YP candidate, very Yukon of him. This might actually split the Liberal vote more; Elias was elected as a Liberal and is still the incumbent, there are those who are candidate voters so the Liberal vote will take a hit based on that alone. With the NDP in the field this election, unlike 2011, they wil be a spoiler for someone, either the YLP or Elias.

[lilTommy]

Any potential recounts?

Mountainview - Liberals won by 6 over NDP (surprise there, Premiers seat)
Mount Lorne - Southern Lakes - Liberals over the NDP 14 votes

If Mountainview moves to NDP, Liberals still have majority (10); if both ridings move back to the NDP Liberals don't (9)

That last poll was pretty darn accurate for the territory wasn't it!