Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[lilTommy]

Manitoba NDP MLA Erin Selby confirms she will resign her seat to run federally in St Boniface-St Vital.

The initial reaction from at least one political scientist is that this would hurt Liberal Dan Vandal who is likely the front runner for this riding, but I'm not so sure.  In addition to being controversial among New Democrats for her having been a member of the Gang of Five, she was also regarded by many Manitobans as a completely incompetent Health Minister.

My guess right now is that she will actually do less well than a no name New Democrat would have done.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/04/former-manitoba-health-minister-running-for-federal-ndp-seat_n_8088762.html

What Selby has going for her is that she was a member of the Gang of five, that she has a not-so-good relationship with a premier who is not that popular. Her MNDP support is coming from the likes of Swan and Oswald, all known for speaking out against Sellinger. Plus the big name recognition which always adds a few points to the race. Selby holds a riding in the south of the Federal one, which went mostly CPC, while the Liberal Support was concentrated in Boniface, held by the Premier... If Selby can pull the votes she her own riding riding and win over provincial NDP voters, she can win. But this traditional Liberal riding, just became a three-way fight. Selby is not favoured, but she can't be counted out.

[lilTommy]

What should Harper be wearing?

A Niqab?

It would be more fitting with where Canada is headed demographically.

in 2011 Muslims made up just over 3% of the population, Arabs just over 1%... so no, it wouldn't

[lilTommy]

So basically... Forum is garbage? and Nanos is overtly partisan Liberal?

[lilTommy]

NDP Released their costing sheet... high level but:

*The seven sources of new revenue and their projected value in the first year include:
- An immediate two-percentage-point increase to the corporate income-tax rate ($3.7-billion)
-Tax integrity measures ($500-million)
-End fossil-fuel subsidies ($240-million)
-Close stock-option loopholes ($500-million)
-Repeal income splitting for families with children and reverse the near-doubling of the annual ---contribution limit to Tax Free Savings Accounts ($2.2-billion)
-Reallocate unspent P3 Canada funds ($281-million in year two)
-Other revenue measures ($64.8-million)

*The eight sources of new spending include:
-Jobs and infrastructure – including a cut to the small-business tax rate from 11 to nine per cent ($3-billion)
-Health and seniors care ($355-million)
-Helping families get ahead ($694-million) ($15 Childcare)
-Opportunities for young Canadians ($140-million)
-Safe and secure Canada ($184.5-million)
-Help where it’s needed most ($572-million)
-Stronger communities, stronger democracy ($157.7-million)

BUT this doesn't include the ISIS missing savings ($122M) or that the G20 actually calculated the Subsidies at almost 1B... so 16-17 the NDP gave themselves about a Billion Surplus or so... if the figures hold up

[lilTommy]

Soo.. two Polls, two different leading parties...

Forum:
CPC - 32%
NDP - 30%
LPC -  28%
http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/09/17/conservatives-take-narrow-lead-new-poll-shows.html

Environics
NDP - 34%
LPC - 29%
CPC - 26%
http://assets.nationalnewswatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/poll-sept.-17.pdf

[lilTommy]

... speaking of Riding level polling to be taking with a grain of sail, CROP has the NDP leading... Papineau
NDP - 46%
LPC - 35%
BQ - 10%
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/trudeau-in-trouble-in-papineau-riding-poll-1.2568576?hootPostID=7b14fa55793444883a6592832cbc868a

[lilTommy]

The Globe and Mail and the National Post have both said Mulcair was the Winner in last nights debate:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/harper-a-bystander-as-trudeau-mulcair-face-off/article26417895/

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-a-little-angry-tom-goes-a-long-way-as-mulcair-outpoints-rivals

... both centre-right, right leaning papers. The Star I can't see anything from them that outright states JT won, that's something I assume is coming.

[lilTommy]

I'd expect much of the harder to reach people in Toronto Centre are more likely to vote NDP, which would explain why the 2011 vote #s are low for the NDP.

Even though the new boundaries are a perfect fit for the NDP, the NDP has never represented the area, so the voters there aren't as willing to vote NDP as they would in other ridings.

The NDP need to use their a) Candidate, well know already before the by-election in 2013 and b) ground game and local game... ie their Councillor's like Pam McConnell and Kristin Wong-Tam, both New Democrats (who are supporting her I believe, Pam I think has come out)

[lilTommy]

Mulcair looks all well and good on paper but in practice has thusfar ran a boring as f**k campaign.

Also Quebec responds well to racism, evidently.

That, and the NDP gambit of moving to the centre to become more electable backfired when the Liberals made left-ish promises about increasing public investment and health care spending.

The Liberal platform actually calls for Health care cuts to balance by 2019 (about 2B if you listen the the federation of nurses)... but they won the "i'm more left-wing" debate thank's to Liberal news outlets like The Star since for some reason running huge deficits for 3 years then introducing massive cuts (which is indicated in their platform) to balance by 2019 is somehow considered Left wing.

Trudeau's considered very good debate performances, favourable media treatment of their platform (without much dissection) and the niqab mess has hurt the NDP. CBC reported the NDP is changing tack and going more now after both Harper and Trudeau and will focus on promoting Mulcair who is still ranked highest is approval for trust and suck in a number of polls

[lilTommy]

La Presse endorses Justin for ideological reasons.

Ah, so Power Corp has figured out which way the wind is blowing.

The Last party LaPresse endorsed was the Conservatives in 2006...
- 2011 - No endorsement (advocated only for "a strong Quebec in Ottawa")
- 2008 - No endorsement
- 2006 - Conservative Party
- 2004 - No endorsement (advocated for a minority government)
- 2000 - Liberal Party
- 1997 - Liberal Party
- 1993 - Liberal Party
- 1988 - Conservative Par

[lilTommy]

Wow. That IRG report has some *really* in depth analysis. I'm not sure if it's correct (my superstitious side feels it's being to favourable to the Libs) but it's the most comprehensive analysis I've seen anywhere so far.

What makes you think the Star will endorse tomorrow, and why the Liberals?

The Star tends to be very Liberal friendly, they only endorsed half-heatedly the NDP 2011 because the party was a head of the Liberals, 2006 and 2008 were the Liberals. They only endorsed the NDP one other time in 1979 and the old federal PCs in 1972.

A friend put it this way:
"The The Toronto Star: By far the easiest to predict. The Star's traditionally Liberal-aligned editorial board will enthusiastically and unreservedly endorse the Trudeau Liberals. Its editorial will extoll Trudeau's "optimism" and "youthfulness", and will say that he's "defied his critics" during this campaign. It will also praise his "bold economic strategy", which he embraced at "considerable political risk", and instruct even its less sympathetic readership to vote "strategically" (i.e. Liberal) to "turn the page on the dark years of Stephen Harper".
After a few token words of reservation (which will probably not mention Bill C-51) it will say, with insufferably saccharine earnestness, that "Justin" has "a touch of his father" about him, and that the final days of this campaign have "something of the excitement of that legendary summer in 1968" when the country "also turned an important page in its history".
The Voice of TorStar will offer some token words about "Mr Mulcair's NDP", and praise it for its "principled stand" on the niqab issue. It will then attack the NDP's opposition to the TPP as "old style politics" designed to "play to the base", and will say Thomas Mulcair's criticisms of Justin Trudeau [over C-51 and other quite specific things that won't be mentioned] "diminished his stature". It will praise the NDP for its "effective and admirable" years as Canada's Official Opposition and then reiterate its weird crush on the Trudeau Liberals with a great, flourishing crescendo of florid rhetoric."

[lilTommy]

Looks like the NDP vote may be efficient, given the low % number.  If they can manage to win the competitive races in the old city of Toronto, southwestern and Northern ontario, and get 5% everywhere else in the province (905, central, rural-east), they may not see the significant blow are expecting.

Also, some polls for some Northern Ontario ridings, still strong for the NDP.

http://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=726178

Yeah the NDP may be able to take 5 seats in Toronto: Danforth, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale.

As for SW Ontario, this region has really shown to be the "fool's gold" for the NDP.  Besides Essex, what else can they pick up there?  The region isn't as "rust belt"-like as many assume.  I don't see the SW Ontario populist strategy yielding many gains.

Beaches-East York will be close, so will Toronto Centre between the NDP/Liberals. The NDP will probably also retain Scarborough North on Rathika's personal popularity; Scarborough SW is still likely to go Liberal sadly. The other NDP seat is York South-Weston, but I haven't heard much about it? the Liberals don't seem to have a strong candidate, but the NDP MP isn't/hasn't been very high profile.  

SWON, outside of Essex, the NDP were in a close fight in Brantford-Brant and Sarnia-Lambton. Niagara Falls has a former Liberal city councillor who is backed by the former Liberal MPP and the current NDP MPP running for the NDP so that might be in play.  Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas was in play but that will possibly go Liberal if the polling is right, although the NDP has the highest profile candidate (good and bad). The next on the list that I've heard mentioned was Chatham-Kent-Leamington.

The North is hard to gauge I think; the NDP might look to pick up TB-Superior North but could lose Sudbury (even with the Liberal scandal); Nipissing-Timiscaming is likely to go back Liberal, and Sault Ste. Marie is a three way race. Kenora should go NDP with the party really pushing Hampton and an Aboriginal policy but it's still very competitive for all three.  

[lilTommy]

I think its been mentioned, EKOS has the NDP up almost 4% Liberals/CPC down but not much

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/liberals-maintain-lead-over-conservatives/

NDP - Lead QUE by 12 points, BC by 4. Second at 35% in SASK (small numbers, MAN shows 2% so probably not at all accurate, SASK seems high but not way off like MAN)
LPC - BIG lead in Atlantic, 39 point lead over NDP 20%, big lead in ON (NDP at 20% again, still seems low), second in BC and QUE

[lilTommy]

And Northern Ontario

Nickel Belt
46-35-14

Nipissing-Tismkaming
47-31-16

Sault Ste. Marie
36-35-23

Sudbury
38-31-27

No surprises; I'm glad to see the NDP still looking like they might hold Sudbury, I had that one as Liberal leaning toss-up. Still more or less is.
SSM - always seems to buck the North trends, in 2011 the NDP lost the riding to the CPC during the orange crush. Provincially the NDP vote increased in 95.

[lilTommy]

So if someone just woke up from a 3 week coma, and wants to know why the Conservatives had a solid lead, and now there's talk of a Liberal Majority, what would you tell them?

1) There was never a solid Tory lead. The best we managed was around 2-3%

2) The NDP pooped the bed by running to the center when progressive voters wanted a shift to the left after Harper. This allowed Trudeau to consolidate the anti-Harper vote somewhat.

The Tories also ran a lackluster campaign and overplayed on the niqab which didn't help them.

Although I followed the election somewhat I don't get the niqab issue. Why is it so important? Why did it hurt the NDP in Quebec? And why didn't it hurt the LPC as well?

The Niqab issue was a play at the CPC base of old, white christians, mostly rural who see "islam" as a threat... the Harper gov't has been less then subtle about that (terror bill and anti-immigration bills as well). BUT this issue plays in Quebec because the regions which are predominantly french and old catholic, this is also seen as a threat to french and their culture. There was a bill proposed by the previous PQ government in Quebec that would do the same thing, banning overt religious symbols in the Public sector. This is popular also among some secularists/progressive since they see the niqab as an oppression on women. SO the NDP were hurt in the Quebec regions for having the principled stance of not attacking someone over their religious beliefs, and hurt in Montreal for not fighting against a symbol of female oppression. lose-lose for the NDP win-win for the Bloq and CPC.
It's a rough issue for Progressives (like me) it is oppressive when forced on women, its a symbol of subservience from my perspective. But I do not believe we can or should be forcing women who chose this to have to remove it for work in the PS or citizenship ceremonies.
It was a bait move to rile people up against someone that is both generally opposed by social conservatives and many social progressives.