Canadian federal election - 2015

[lilTommy]

Thanks Rachel Notley?

Thank Justin and his backstab on C-51. I've been an NDP hack ever since. And similarly, the Waterloo NDP candidate Diane Freeman soon-to-be-proclaimed is a recent Lib->NDP convert from city council.

Add to that the Liberal>NDP mayor of Perth Ontario running for the NDP in that riding (Lanak-Frontenac-Kingston I think)

[lilTommy]

Riding polls in four swing ridings in BC all show NDP leads

https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/polling-results-summary

Insights West interviewed 300 voting-age adults by telephone in each of four different federal ridings. Those who said they were likely to vote were asked, “if the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of these candidates would you support?”

 
Courtenay-Alberni - NDP 33%, CPC 23%, Libs 11%, Greens 9%

Cowichan-Malahat-Langford - NDP 32%, CPC 22%, Libs 12%, Greens 8%

Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke - NDP 42%, CPC 14%, Libs 12%, Greens 13%

Burnaby-North Seymour - NDP 35%, CPC 15%, Libs 6% (??), Greens 19% (I wonder if the Green and liberals numbers here were flipped)

“The federal Liberal Party is currently not competitive in these ridings, in spite of a seemingly high proportion of residents who regard Justin Trudeau as their preferred prime minister,” said Canseco. “The New Democrats are ahead in all four constituencies, with an extremely high number of supporters in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.”

The only one that I am surprised with is Burnaby North-Seymour... with the 2011 numbers this was suppose to be much more CPC leaning. 19% for the greens in a riding with no star candidate? probably the LPC numbers but this riding is right beside North Vancouver where the former CBC meteorologist is running (her name escapes me).
The other three are all on VanIsland and the NDP, even provincially poll very strong there. But I am impressed with the 10 point lead in CA and CML and the huge lead in ESS.... Looks like the high green numbers are hurting the Liberals more then anyone

[lilTommy]

Burnaby leans NDP though it is more competitive at the provincial and federal level.

The Green Party candidate in that riding is a science professor who got arrested at a Kinder-Morgan protest.  That said, I too would suspect that the numbers are reversed.

Provincially Burnaby North is the only non-NDP held riding, and I believe it is heavily Chinese-Canadian (but it was close, only 3% difference between the LIB and NDP). Even Burnaby-Lougheed was only won by the NDP by 4% (about 700 votes). I'm thinking the CPC numbers are far lower then they actually are, greens tend to poll higher before elections then come election time in many cases.

[lilTommy]

Reuters: MacKay will make some money in the private sector, then "when people want more of a PC govt. in 6-7 years, he'll be there."

Agreed w/Matt Gurney.

Long time Reform/CPC MP Diane Ablonczy will retire as well http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/calgary-mp-confirms-retirement-from-federal-politics

[lilTommy]

We have our first poll after a long polling drought.


NDP down in Ontario, up in Quebec, Prairies. Liberals still 3rd in a 3 way race.
Look at how the Greens bounce between the teens to 1% in Manitoba. Yay small sample sizes!

Those a big jumps for the NDP in both Sask and Man, last poll I had the NDP in the 20's and third place; NDP second in the Atlantic for the first time I can remember. BC is still the most 3-way competative, no one is pulling ahead in BC, second poll I've seen with the NDP leading there though.
Do you have a link? typically they have demographic breakdowns as well

[lilTommy]

The paywall on the ekos poll has come down.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/29/the-ekos-poll-canadians-warming-to-the-idea-of-coalition-government/

While the NDP can see good news mostly everywhere, again... The Liberals lead among no demographic groups, except women who are statistically in a three-way tie. 18-49 The NDP leads 50+ the CPC leads (notably very much so among 65+). HS+College the CPC lead; University NDP Leads (very Alberta-esque). Interestingly "Those not born in Canada" are in a statistically tie (30,30,28) this was a group that used to be owned by the Liberals and were won over by the CPC in 2011 now seem to be split. It would be interesting to see which ethnic groups/Immigrant groups are going to which party, Or if it is a regional thing. NDP leads among CDN born.

[lilTommy]

Ekos' second preference poll matches Abacus' findings. Not only does NDP has the highest ceiling, but Conservative's second preferences are evenly matched between NDP and LPC. And there are a lot of voters wafting between LPC and NDP.

Are their regional numbers provided as well? this is still behind the paywall... its all about the regional numbers man!

[lilTommy]

Where you moving Holmes?
Well this wont make you feel any better... Regional's:



NDP leading PQ and BC, tied in ON... second everywhere but Manitoba (Sellinger gov't effect?)
Liberals third in ON (still a three way race though) and BC is very bad news indeed for them, their large lead in the Atlantic is gone, still comfortably in the lead though as the NDP has surpassed the CONs for second.

[lilTommy]

My model now produces a CPC-NDP seat tie with the new numbers:

Ekos also got a tie results, lower Liberal numbers and BQ maintaining their seats though:
CPC - 125
NDP - 125
LPC - 83
GRN - 1
BQ - 4

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/06/05/the-ekos-poll-mulcair-is-picking-up-all-the-marbles-as-trudeau-fades/

[lilTommy]

What's actually caused Orange Crush Mark II?

The NDP vote has been slowly trending up till now creeping back up to the low to mid-20% mark since this year... I think that is part to Trudeau's honeymoon starting to end, overall good-decent NDP news, and policy releases. But the party was still in a solid third... up until Alberta. The NDP win in Alberta pushed to solidify the NDPs numbers in Quebec (agree or disagree, after the Alberta election the NDP has been solidly polling first, not neck&neck with the Liberals). Generally very good coverage of the NDP in Ontario (anti-Privatization of Hydro is very popular along with Horwath the provincial leader personally polling better) has all started to culminate in conjunction with very bad Liberal federal decisions (supporting C51 in particular, and their finance policy just not going over as well as it should have).
It's not one thing, it's a culmination of a few things (both done by the NDP and by the Liberals/CPC), I would say both federally and provincially in key regions that is helping the NDP.  Lets hope it lasts

[lilTommy]

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/294/conservative-minority-seen/

Forum poll
LPC - 32%
CPC - 31%
NDP - 28%

The regionals for PQ look off based on polling that has been posted here last week, their PQ numbers look to be outliers. The LPC at 34% vs the NDP 24% and CPC 23% this is striking in that these low numbers for the NDP aren't supported by previous polling which had they at almost 20 points higher (38%)? and the Liberals almost 20 points lower (17%).

[lilTommy]

Federal Atlantic Canada numbers from CRA
http://www.halifaxer.com/2015/06/10/ndp-support-surges-in-atlantic-canada/

LPC - 43% (-13)
NDP - 29% (+15)
CPC - 24% (-2)

CRA has also published provincial numbers in NB, NS and NFLD which also indicate an upward trend for the NDP at the expense of the Liberals mostly, to a smaller extent the PCs too though.

[lilTommy]

48% in Quebec omg! Post-Duceppe or not? If so, RIP Bloc.

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NDP actually tails CPC in ON 36-34 in the poll, not leading

I took part in this survey, for me it was done before Duceppe's announcement so the next set of Quebec polls will be when we actually see if the Bloc get a bump.
Just like EKOS, this poll is showing the NDP have replaced the Liberals, in the polls, as the clear choice against Harper. In December the NDP was at 23%, now 36%; the Liberals were 35% and now 23%

... the Liberals are rolling out policy like no tomorrow now! on Government reform and infrastructure but they don't seem to "get" the NDP surge is not related fully to policy... it was the Liberals own actions on C-51, the senate and the Alberta results (primarily, good provincial moves in ON and BC have helped to a lesser extent regionally too) that have galvanized the progressive and anti-harper vote towards the NDP

[lilTommy]

Are there are any seats held by the Ontario PCs that the federal Tories could really lose - besides Nipissing perhaps?

Perhaps Chatham-Kent-Essex? Sarnia-Lambton?

Most of SWON I'd say... Perth-Wellington, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Oxford, Chatham-Kent-Essex and Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Brantford-Brant.

[lilTommy]

Latest Forum has a clear NDP lead
NDP 34%
LPC 28%
CPC 26%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/299/conservatives-liberals-tied-for-second/

lol Quebec is the NDP's worst region in that poll, at 31%. Yes, that means they are over 31% in every other region.

The BQ Leader bump, most likely short lived I would think... but it did change up the game in this poll.

[lilTommy]

Moore retiring.

NDP+1

Cheers from the NDP's BC team!
Moore's riding was being redistributed out anyway...
NDP's Fin Donnelly is going to have incumbent advantage in Port Moody-Coquitlam... and now Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam is up for grabs/advantage to the NDPs Sarah Norman. Sad, it would have been fun to see Moore go up against a reporter/journalist who won an award for exposing some of Moore's comments in regards to child poverty.

[lilTommy]

Moore retiring.

NDP+1

Cheers from the NDP's BC team!
Moore's riding was being redistributed out anyway...
NDP's Fin Donnelly is going to have incumbent advantage in Port Moody-Coquitlam... and now Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam is up for grabs/advantage to the NDPs Sarah Norman. Sad, it would have been fun to see Moore go up against a reporter/journalist who won an award for exposing some of Moore's comments in regards to child poverty.

If this is true, and not some accidental rumor it is a shocker.  He's not even 40 yet (39) and had been widely believed to have interest in running for party leader (not that he can't run from the outside.)  This also suggests that Conservative insiders don't believe their party can form the government after the next election (they may believe the Cons will win the most seats but they obviously believe the Liberals and the NDP will team up to defeat them and put together a government) as this makes the second or third cabinet minister who had been mentioned as being interested in running for leader to announce his retirement (Moore, Peter McKay and to a lesser degree John Baird).

On a couple more minor points,
1.James Moore's riding was redistributed as were nearly all the ridings across Canada, but I believe this new riding is comprised of well over half of Moore's old riding.  According to the redistributed riding results on one of the government websites, the Conservatives received around 55% of the vote in this new riding based on the 2011 election results.

2.The NDP candidate's name is actually Sara Norman, there's no 'H'.  I checked because I made the same mistake myself last time.  Minor point, but out of respect, I do believe we should try to spell people's names properly (and pronounce them properly too.)  Of course, you are completely free to disagree with my opinion on this.

I appreciate the correct (I only have ever known Sarah's so... my mistake)
new Ekos poll http://ipolitics.ca/2015/06/19/the-ekos-poll-bloc-eats-into-ndp-lead-vote-splits-favour-tories-in-ontario/

NDP drops a bit, but specific to the Moore comments, the BC numbers are way up: NDP 37% vs 23% (LPC and CPC) 14% Green
Bloq bounce again showing, as well as some LPC and CPC recovery. The poll again shows a strong three-way race

[lilTommy]

Project Montréal councillor Peter McQueen is planning to run for the NDP nomination in Notre-Dame-de-Grace—Westmount... against Liberal Marc Garneau

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/peter-mcqueen-ndg-city-councillor-makes-jump-to-federal-politics-1.3122048

[lilTommy]

New Forum Poll:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/305/nearing-majority-with-stronghold-in-bc/

NDP - 36% (+2) - 149 seats
CPC - 28% (-2) - 115
LPC - 28% (-) - 65

NDP leads in ON, PQ, Man/Sask and BC (Huge lead, 54%... that feels too high, higher then in PQ by almost 20 point)
A big change is who will win "Roughly equal proportions anticipate a Conservative (29%) or an NDP (27%) victory. Just fewer expect a Liberal victory (25%). "

[lilTommy]

Do you guys think the NDP is still tainted in ON by the stench of Bob Rae ? I am way too young to remember him as premier, but have read a lot about the 'Rae Day's' and the difficult economic times and austerity of his time in office. A lot of people 45 + would certainly remember him, and probably not too well. It could cut into the NDP's claims of competence when in office.

There are probably some very minor lingering effects, but I don't think it will affect very much. He's been gone 20 years and he didn't really do anything so bad and so outrageous as to kill the party brand (e.g. NEP with the Liberals made it a lot easier for NDP surge)

 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/the-hidden-history-of-bob-raes-government-in-ontario/article1314254/
There is a good article from a few years ago Zyzz that sums up what DC Al Fine said. It comes down to basically a massive smear campaign from the right-wing media and corporate leaders that dominates a government that wasn't actually that bad given the economic situation at the time. Now the Rae government did fail to deliver one of its main policies, public auto-insurance and the Social contract was a mistake in how it was forced and not really negotiated with the public unions. Rae Days aren't really that bad when you think of it, and it was part of a plan to try and save public sector jobs after pressure was being put to cut the PS by about 30,000 people.

[lilTommy]

Forum Poll: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/309/new-seat-allocation-favours-conservative-minority-harper-approval-up

NDP - 32% (-)
CPC - 32% (+5)
LPC - 26% (-3)

"In vote-rich Ontario, the three parties are essentially tied (Conservative - 32%, Liberal - 33%, NDP - 31%), while in Quebec the NDP have a slight lead (29%) over the Conservatives (26%), while the Liberals (23%) and the Bloc trail (18%). In Atlantic Canada, the three parties are tied (Conservatives - 32%, Liberals- 29%, NDP - 33%), while in Alberta, the Conservatives dominate (54%) and the NDP are at half this level (28%). The NDP is dominant in BC (41%), followed by the Liberals (29%) and Conservatives (23%). In the prairies, the Conservatives (41%) and NDP (42%) are tied.
More than a quarter of those who voted Liberal in 2011 will vote NDP this time around (27%) and this is twice the proportion which will switch between other parties."

[lilTommy]

New Forum Poll
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/17/ndp-captures-lead-in-public-support-forum-poll-says.html

but I can't seem to open the forum link? it takes us to the Forum home page where this poll isn't even up and The Star poll tracker graph is not up to date either?
Anywho...

NDP - 34% (+2) - 132 seats
CPC - 27% (-5)  - 107 seats
LPC - 27% (+1) - 79 seats

[lilTommy]

I think it's a little misleading to report on their "seat totals"

... probably right, but its still fun
the Globe has this simulator... if you keep hitting run new simulation... the NDP had anywhere from 112-156 seats so, grain of salt for sure! I was just giving the info from the site

[lilTommy]

Sad news: Former NDPer Hunter Tootoo will be seeking the Liberal nomination in Nunavut.

That's disappointing, but the NDP might have an equally strong candidate in Clyde River mayor Jerry Natanine
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/jerry-natanine-seeks-nunavut-ndp-nomination-in-federal-election-1.3135720

[lilTommy]

Sad news: Former NDPer Hunter Tootoo will be seeking the Liberal nomination in Nunavut.

Oh dear! Looks like Leona will get back in because of the vote splitting (Like in 2008)

Leona Aglukkaq (Kitikmeot region)
Hunter Tootoo (Kivalliq/Keewatin region)
Jerry Natanine (Qikiqtaaluk/Baffin region, unofficial)

Kivalliq is second largest region of Nunavut, they will vote Hunter because he is FROM there. Just check election 1997 results...

Will it work against Tootoo that he doesn't speak Inuktitut? Is Nunavut very tribal/regionalist in that sense (your from my area so I will vote for you, regardless of party or positions, etc)