Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[lilTommy]

How many polls have come out, where the full period was post-debate?

I'm expecting the NDP to rise 10 points.

That's optimistic, and I'm an optimist! I'd expect the NDP to be around 25-27% but 33-34%!i would be ecstatic if that was the outcome, but if i try and be the realist i could see many undecideds sticking with the Liberals. Those who want change might vote strategic as well (ruralers going Tory and Urbaners (To, London, Windsor,etc) going NDP.
Plus last poll showed that Tories were more likely to go NDP as the Liberal vote was starting to solidify.

[lilTommy]

I have to admit, other than one articule from the CEO of the hospital not happy with Andrea (she handled it well and its more or less flown over with not much notice) its been all positive news all over the place, from the Globe, the Star the CBC even SUN media! (WTF) (ok except that blatant pro-McGuinty "Andrea is Hudak's BFF" articule.
Hmmm i personally think HUdak blew it, so i'd reverse the first one:
Lib - 34%
PC - 31%
NDP - 30%
Green ... 5% is generous at this point (that goes to another point, should the Greens have focused more time/money/energy in Simcoe-Grey getting Mike elected ala Federally?)

So seat count then? based on say 27-33% for the NDP... 20-22 seats?

[lilTommy]

Holmes! you forgot my favourite one!

Bramalea-Gore-Malton:
Jagmeet Singh NDP: 34.1%
Kuldip Kular Lib: 31.6%
Sanjeev Manji Con: 26.4%
Pauline Thomhan Green: 6%

http://rabble.ca/babble/ontario/ontario-2011-election-campaign-3 (sorry couldn't get that pretty graffical representation )

[lilTommy]

I went to school in a Catholic school board, so...

So did i... and i full support killing the Catholic school board, for both moral and financial reasons.

With the NDP rising in pretty much every poll we have seen, why would we not be leading in Ottawa centre? have we seen regional numbers that would suggest thats a lost race? I could see the strategic voting being played out in Ottawa as well since the tories can pick up urban seats there.

[lilTommy]

I know endorsements don't necessarily mean anything, but Desmon Tutu just endrosed Anil Nadoo In Ottawa Centre? who knew eh!

http://www.icontact-archive.com/yiOThMH64xlcbGhSe3uwC-RAQ4Lq6EPD?w=1

[lilTommy]

what do those polls look like then?

[lilTommy]

Another Nanos sez PC 36.4, LIB 35.9, NDP 25.7, GRN 1.2

Ekos sez LIB 37.8, PC 30.6, NDP 22.7, GRN 7.3

Cross fingers that Ekos is correct.

Thaty EKOS poll looks out of whack, no one has had the Liberals that high or the NDP that low in a good while... i will wait to see more polls before i believe that one.

The tories are starting to be (ok get?) desperate, Hudak is full supporting a homophobic and rather hateful piece of literature; while the liberals sound childish and stubborn by being so emphatic about not working with anyone if they don't win... The NDP coming off the high of basically winning a winnerless leaders debate and with all the momentum i doubt they would have dropped below 25%

[lilTommy]

Have things really stalled that much in Ottawa Centre?

They also didn't cover London-Fanshawe, yet looked at both LNC and LW?

[lilTommy]

Toda from Ekos Oct 2-3

All Voters: Lib 39.1%, PC 29.1%, NDP 24.5%, Green 6.0%, Others 1.4%

Likely Voters: Lib 39.6%, PC 31.9%, NDP 22.1%, Green 5.3%, Others 1.0%

So i'm comfortable now saying there is proof to counter strategic voting, the tories are only 5 points ahead of the NDP... they blew this election, it was theres to lose and it looks lost. The NDP vote is TO seems very low, that must include Scar/Etob/NY... the NDP need to be pushing the only vote that will produce change is the NDP but are people still dumb enough to believe they need to vote Liberal to stop the tories (Hartman in Ottawa Centre would probably say yes!)

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/FG-2011-10-04.pdf

[lilTommy]

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

Can you give some insight into why Kenora-Rainy River will flip to the tories? I know Howard is not running again and personal popularity was a big factor... but have there been polls or have we seen a big swing? Federally it went Tory yes, but the tories are bleeding support right now (ok its more like a paper cut, but they are stuck in the mid-30s) But the NDP is up... probably not 78% up but still i would expect (hope!) to be able to retain a held seat like with Welland? Plus the huge Manitoba victory has to have some spill as this area of ontario has always been more closely linked to Manitoba then the rest of ontario. Just wondering about the logic... all in all i think the NDP will pull in around 18-22 depending on how the night goes (22 with them winning KRR, OC, WW, SSW)

[lilTommy]

I'm not the only one who thinks Kenora will go Tory. Look at electionpredictions.org. The seat is vacant, and the NDP has been having trouble winning it federally. I am fairly confident it will go Conservative.

True, but we have to remember that Federally all the northern ridings are different... so the ON KRR contains well Rainy River/Fort Frances which has a more left, labour bend/tradition to it. Howard has endorsed Sarah Campbell so its not like hes out of the picture... it hink it will be close, but i'm going to say the NDP will hold it, if only by the smallest margin, about 1% or so.

I'm seeing some predictions as high as 30seats for the NDP... my range is closer to 18-22

[lilTommy]

Krago did the redistribution based on provincial ridings, and Kenora-RR still would've gone Tory.

Well thats disapointing... with how well the party is expecting to do, to lose the old leaders seat, thats gona sting.. plus it would have been nice to have another women in caucus.
I heard there was infighting after the nomination? anything on that?

[lilTommy]

Peterborough. Northumerland. Hastings. even Perth, Kent, Elgin.

These are areas that vote CPC but OLP.

Just because Kenora votes CPC does not mean they'll vote PCO

Those seats have Liberal incumbents. Kenora-RR has no incumbent.

It's why Windsor West *should* be going NDP today, instead the candidate there ed things up royally, and will probably lose.

Oh really? how the heck did he do that? i haven't been reading too much about Windsor West

[lilTommy]

Really? thats it! ... thats Liberal dirty tactics at it again... digging up anything from a year or years ago to try and smear... this time in a riding the liberals might have lost. The guys a poverty activits! i'm surprised he didn't say Liberals and tories eat children at the way (the tories in particular) deal with poverty. Was it stupid to post yes, partisan yes... but do i remember posts i made a year ago on facebook? hell no! lol

Meh, hes no star candidate, and the riding should be competative regardless so i don't think its a total loss just yet, its not my top riding for a pick up. If someone decided that this was the reason they wont vote for the NDP they weren't really going to in the first place.

How many people think that homophobic hateful and dishonest piece of crap leaflet the tories were throwing about will hurt them? i doubt not much outside the 416 where really, they weren't going to win much anyway outside the old suburbs and with some ehtnic groups it might play well (sorry but its true, many newcomers and old white people are very socially conservative)

[lilTommy]

I think the polls should be about on par with: Libs 37-40%; PC 33-35%; NDP 21-25%... It will depend on how well the parties can pull the vote, sounds like its going to be a higher voter turnout as well so that could be a good thing for Mcguinty (an anti-tory vote) or a bad thing (a change vote for the NDP/Tories, more the NDP i think)
But what will be interesting/exciting will be all the three way races, this is going to be a very riding by riding election, all three parties have been very strategic to target key ridings they feel they can win/need to hold. Also regions are very different here so it depends on how accurate the samplings were.
In retrospect, regional large polls should be done instead of province wide polls.

[lilTommy]

Liberals were very strong in the GTA. Because of Harper and Ford, of course.

The ridings in the second group, meanwhile, really don't like cutting the gas tax and cancelling commuter rail projects. I don't mean to deny that there's areas of good news elsewhere in the province. But when Jack Layton just dominated the manufacturing areas while vocally supporting a cap-and-trade scheme, there's no reason to be in this economic la-la land where you're the party of reducing both usage and cost of traditional fossil fuels at the same time.
[/quote]

Not really, i'm chalking it up to good old fashion Liberal fear mongering... and don't say it wasn't cause it at least played a pretty important role. All over the city i had friends who were NDP voters saying they might vote Liberal... Sarah Thompson (i know i wont let this go ) herself used vote-Liberal-or-Tories-will-win-and-the-end-is-nigh routine on me. In the last days you saw an upswing in the GTA for the Liberals... it was a vote in large part against Hudak, who truely underestimated how socially conservative values only help to elect Liberals in areas that would otherwise be competative for the NDP... The HST gas issue was a not hated, you fail to understand that most condo owners/home owners still have cars. They might use transit often but generally still have cars.

I think in Windsor and Thunder Bay the Union endorsement hurt the NDP especially...Those areas had a) incumbents (except WW), b) cabinet ministers... and in thunder bay the lover Bombardier contract. All 4 ridings had relatively weak NDP candidates too. Hartman can explain Ottawa Centre

You notice Essex and BGM... both had recently run federally and had done well, name advantage helped.

[lilTommy]

Northern Ontario has a ton of trees, and hardly any Green support. I don't think that's a valid assumption.

Northern Ontario is another beast all together, and i think we mentioned that... and you can see that the Greens die bascially north of Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka. The Cottages end and the small resources towns replace the baby-boomer cottage country. I think that might play too into the Greens strength in Parry Sound-Muskoka... many small c conservatives who don't care for the PC rebranded tea party north who might not vote NDP or LIberal might vote Green as they are fiscally more conservative. Same for the Simcoe ridings.
The North is more resources based around forestry and minning... if there are any enviro's up there i think they vote NDP or Liberal, which is an odd mix since the NDP has been a traditional base for the forestry and environmentalism... which i don't think their mutually exclusive either.
Greens also tend to die off in old industrial areas; look at SW ontario or the Hamilton-Niagara area... areas where the NDP is stronger.