The real question is whether, or not, Barack Obama has a reasonable path to victory without taking Ohio. Florida seems to be slipping away. If he loses in Virginia, he has to sweep NV, CO, IA, NH and WI, which doesn't seem to be too realistic. Virginia, too, seems to be slipping away. CO and NH could easily replace VA for Romney, leaving IA or NV as his path to victory.
Polls taken at Romney's post-debate peak have VA and CO as effective ties and small Obama leads in NV and IA. This is with Romney winning the national popular vote by at least 1%. Democrats have also underpolled drastically in CO and NV for the last two cycles, one of which was a Republican wave in the rest of the country. Finally, Romney being below his national polling average in VA does not in any way constitute slipping away. Face it, Obama has a built in 1.0-1.5% advantage in the electoral college relative to the popular vote.
Let's debunk your errors one by one.
1) Romney did not have a "post-debate peak." After the debate, he pulled into a small, but stable lead.
2) We will only know in retrospect where the individual state races lie at this moment. If turnout mirrors 2008, Obama will outperform the polls. If turnout mirrors 2010, Romney is well ahead in those states. Survey after survey shows more Republicans, and fewer Democrats than 2008. They, also, show much higher enthusiasm for Republicans in 2012, and less for the Democrats.
3) For some moronic reason at the end of 2010 campaign the GOP spent millions in failed bid to win in California rather than fund a ground game in CO. That mistake won't be repeated in 2012. Nor, did the GOP have much of a ground game in NV. Again, that mistake will not be repeated.
4) Virginia is slipping away from Obama. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama triages Virginia in a desperate bid to hang onto Ohio.
