Reality Check: It's Been Warm

[BigSkyBob]

I've read a series of extrapolations about how the economy is allegedly booming. It isn't. 2011 came in at 1.7% GDP growth. That's a real number, and, it isn't good.

The poor weather of winter typically slows economic activity [such as construction.] Because of that fact, economic numbers are seasonally adjusted. This winter's weather has been usually warm rendering the "seasonal adjustment" misleading.

When springtime runs around on the calender, the economic numbers will be misleadingly adjusted downwards. 

[BigSkyBob]

Paul Krugman:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/09/opinion/one-good-month.html?pagewanted=2&src=pm


At last, a favorable surprise on jobs: estimated payroll employment rose 243,000 in January, above almost everyone's expectations. You can't blame the administration for trying to play up the good news, and for being dismayed when the sound of popping Champagne corks was drowned out by the crackle of gunfire. But has the economy, after so many false starts, finally started to deliver?

After three years of lousy job performance, we should be seeing very big employment gains -- and even after last month's report, we're not. It would take about four years of reports as good as the one for January 2012 before jobs would be as easy to find as they were in January 2001.

For three years, they've had nothing but red ink to show for their efforts. Now they've had one good but not great month.

Still, on the face of it there's nothing to recommend Mr. Obama's approach

Seasonally adjusted, payrolls were up 243,000. In absolute numbers, payrolls were down over two million jobs. Zero hedge had a series of posts about how the jobs number is a giant guestimate passed off as authoritarian.