I used the July 2011 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 15 month period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.
CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1
The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are CO-8, AL-7, VA-12, CA-54, and FL-28 (#435).
The next five in line are WV-3, OR-6, NY-27, AZ-10, LA-7.
I doubt the methodology here. Census 2010 had horrible undercount problems in some areas. Comparing July 2010 estimates to July 2011 estimates I think is the more apt comparison.
Obama politicizes everything. My assumption was that he would run Census 2010 to net Democrats more seats. What really happened, was that he hired enumerators, trained them, and laid them off, only to rehire them, and retrain them. He did that to increase the number of "jobs" he created. The problem was those enumerators were really needed in areas such as Queens. The Census was a mess in NYC, and, the final count was below estimates derived by statistical counting models.
If the Republicans hold the New York Senate this election, one of the reasons will be Obama's incompetence in adminsistering the Census.
