Ontario 2018 election

[Wisconsin+17]

Could someone please shop me up an avatar of Tanya Granic Allen doing the 'bye bitch'?

[Wisconsin+17]

https://tenor.com/view/pocahontas-bye-bitch-gif-7394164

[Wisconsin+17]

Looks like the Forum poll is no bueno. Ekos has it 35-34 NDP/PC.

[Wisconsin+17]

http://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ndp-heavily-favoured-for-provincial-election-leaked-poll

Yeah, but it's not an encouraging sign when you're well outside of your margin and into the 5% of the 19/20 disclaimer.

[Wisconsin+17]

Yeah, if you believe that, look at BC and Alberta.

[Wisconsin+17]

[quote]overestimated BC Liberal support by a lot and underestimated BC NDP support.[quote]

I don't think anyone predicted a +9 Liberal swing in the interior and a +9 NDP swing in the lower mainland.

All those ridings were considered to be tossups. Hardly a condemnation of the polls that they got calls wrong on ridings that were the most difficult to predict.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh, West Vancouver, North Vancouver? Port Coquitlam, etc?

Vancouver has lots of high income outer burbs. North and West Van in particular have massively outsized influence. Richmond is even starting to take on those characteristics now.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not when you take transit into account and densities. West Van/North Van outside of Lonsdale area is right up in the mountains like PoCo, and Port Moody.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

NDP won solely on the bridge toll issue. They were obliterated in the interior turning them into a regional party, much like the Ontario Liberals.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Politically influential, well out of proportion to their population? Check. Outer burb area? Also check. Very similar to these areas of Toronto. Toronto, of course is 5 million people, which is more than our entire province.

It would be the same as if these regions in Toronto were 300k people and not 150.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They went -7 in one region and +7 on the other, turning their electoral distribution similar to Wynne's Liberals. Of course our politics are very different.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sheesh. Give us a little bit of credit, Bacon King.

[Wisconsin+17]

Well if that's the case my numbers are going to be way wrong and we'll see a large PC majority. Wow.