Demographics and the Electorate (user search)
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Author Topic: Demographics and the Electorate  (Read 5989 times)
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,136
United States


« on: September 25, 2016, 04:29:58 PM »
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I actually think the polls are out and 538's model is correct.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2016, 11:30:05 PM »
Swing-o-matic is now much more resistant to swinging. MT isn't going to Clinton. I have to push the college educated vote to 57 percent Clinton to get close, but even that isn't enough. LA and MT will not go to Clinton this election.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2016, 11:36:17 PM »
Interestingly, Trump doing a little better among all the other ethnic groups, a 64 percent share of whites without a degree will give a 337 Trump EC victory.

They also simulate the FREIWALL quite well.

Hillary wins with Trump getting 57 percent of the Whites without a degree, by holding the firewall without VA, but with CO and NV.

He needs a 4 percent shift, to 61 to finally crack the FRIEWALL. That's a 4 percent shift to flip one state.
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