Donald Trump’s Red-State Problem

[Wisconsin+17]

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Hillary hasn't even gotten out the Obama base. Just like in the Romney election, I was very clear to Romney supporters - "Obama is going to lose voters, but that doesn't mean that Romney is going to win. Romney still has to turn out the Republican base." Sure enough, that's exactly what happened. Romney lost voters from McCain and the Republicans lost even though Obama did much more poorly in 2012 than in 2008.

I see the same happening with Hillary. Hillary loses voters over Obama, and Trump loses because the GOP base refuses to vote for him.

Honestly, I don't see why Democrats are crowing about a demographic 'realignment' when the 2012 numbers were lower than the 2008 numbers.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Total vote for Hillary as a percentage will be lower than Obama 2008, and Obama 2012. But she'll win comfortably as turnout will be down from Romney 2012, and from McCain in 2008. 

Calling it now. It's less about the Democrat 'coalition', and everything to do with Republican mismanagement.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Hillary's -27 favorables - and Johnson doing better than expected. If the election is not seen as close - which I expect will be the coverage, then folks who would rather vote for someone else or stay home, will.

As for Hispanics - it's doubtful they will turnout big for Hillary in the end. Even if Trump is driving up folks - folks are far more likely to turn out FOR someone than AGAINST someone else.

That being said, Trump is terrible and conservatives are happy letting him go down with the ship.