Crossing the 50 percent barrier. (user search)
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  Crossing the 50 percent barrier. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Crossing the 50 percent barrier.  (Read 514 times)
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« on: March 30, 2016, 05:49:52 AM »
Trump vs McCain/Romney

Interestingly enough, in the national polling, Trump is still stronger than Romney was at equivalent points of their run.

Romney hit 38.3 in March 6th of 2012.

He would finally break 40 percent a month later on April 9th.

Trump was slightly weaker than Romney at 37.5 in March 6th - crossing 40 percent March 19th, and leveling off at 42.5 percent. Romney - the previous weakest Republican nominee, didn't cross the 50 percent barrier until the end of April.

This month will be crucial for Trump's nomination. He will have to cross the 50 percent barrier nationwide by the end of April or he will likely not get the nomination.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2016, 08:24:05 AM »
Polling average per RCP. Romney is the only republican nominee not to get 50+ percent in the national average by April 1st. Trump will join him as the second.

We already know that Trump is a weak nominee, but so far he seems to be stronger than Romney.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2016, 08:28:43 AM »
Obama broke 50 percent by late April. Clinton never did - her peak of 48.5 back in October is a bit of an aberration.

IOW - Trump should have sufficient momentum to push through, but he has to do it this month. He needs to win over the disaffected by April. Clinton was at 43 in 2012, April 1st and still lost the nomination.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2016, 08:30:11 AM »
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Mallow - 50 percent in the primaries seems to be a significant number. I'm asserting that 50 percent in a national primary poll means that you will be the nominee.

The length of time in which the nominee takes to get to that seems to be an indicator of strength in a national election.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2016, 08:41:36 AM »
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Hillary's election curves are unique.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2016, 08:49:41 AM »
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Her peak in 2012.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2016, 08:52:32 AM »
Clinton also has a chance of being the first nominee with greater than 50 percent to lose an election. She's not particularly strong for this time of the cycle, but she's definitely stronger this year than the previous cycle, and stronger than Romney and Trump.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2016, 09:10:34 AM »
Blah. 2008. I need coffee!
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