CNN: Romney close to 60%, as almost all Santorum-voters go for Romney (user search)
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  CNN: Romney close to 60%, as almost all Santorum-voters go for Romney (search mode)
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Author Topic: CNN: Romney close to 60%, as almost all Santorum-voters go for Romney  (Read 3133 times)
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« on: April 17, 2012, 01:15:14 AM »

Interesting. My model had 20/30/30 with 20 undecided.

Looks like all the undecided went Romney, along with the 30 that I had going to Paul.

70/30 Romney split. Basically Newt is back up to his former support as of a month ago, but nobody else. Seems like the late Romney breakers from Newt have gone back to Newt, and all of the Santorum supporters have gone to Romney/Paul rather than support Newt.

This is a disaster for Newt.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2012, 01:22:59 AM »

I'm still arguing with Newtbots on Freerepublic who believe that he's still viable.

This is devastating evidence to the contrary.

I have him down 10 in TX based on this model  43-33 and that's the best performance of Newt.

Does anyone want to check my numbers? I'm pretty sure that a 57-19 split even given Newt's southern boost would give Mitt + 10 in TX.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2012, 01:28:38 AM »

Well I think Newt does better in TX than in WV, AR and KY.

Does Romney +10 in TX seem reasonable? You folks know more than me.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2012, 01:32:15 AM »

Ok, so I'm erring on the side of Newt.

Thanks. Appreciate it. Glad to know I'm not completely out to lunch.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,136
United States


« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2012, 09:34:36 PM »

I'm still arguing with Newtbots on Freerepublic who believe that he's still viable.

This is devastating evidence to the contrary.

I have him down 10 in TX based on this model  43-33 and that's the best performance of Newt.

Does anyone want to check my numbers? I'm pretty sure that a 57-19 split even given Newt's southern boost would give Mitt + 10 in TX.

Not too shabby!
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