After Brnovich v. DNC: Will SCOTUS eventually declare Section 2 unconstitutional?

[SteveRogers]

I think Kagan has the opinion in Lange v. California. If she doesn’t, it’s probably Kavanaugh.

I was correct! Kagan has Lange v. California. Only Thomas, Kavanaugh, Breyer, and Alito don't have any from that sitting. Thomas already has many opinions, so I don't think he has Brnovich v. DNC. If Alito has it, RIP Terri Sewell, she's DOA and say hello to safe R AL-07.

Um, can you explain what you think this case is about?

[SteveRogers]

I think Kagan has the opinion in Lange v. California. If she doesn’t, it’s probably Kavanaugh.

I was correct! Kagan has Lange v. California. Only Thomas, Kavanaugh, Breyer, and Alito don't have any from that sitting. Thomas already has many opinions, so I don't think he has Brnovich v. DNC. If Alito has it, RIP Terri Sewell, she's DOA and say hello to safe R AL-07.

Um, can you explain what you think this case is about?

It’s about the scope of VRA’s results test.

So what is it that you think happens if Alito has the opinion, specifically?

[SteveRogers]

1-This is just a random Reason writer's speculation.
2-This case isn't very broad, it just involves Arizona's not accepting of provisional ballots cast at the wrong precinct and law banning ballot harvesting. Upholding those two laws wouldn't have much impact on Arizona elections as they're already in place and most states have such laws already. It makes sense the DNC would try to get these laws struck down but the almost certainly in vain attempt won't make voting laws any worse now than in 2020.

Why use such simple algorithms BTRD, when far more complex ones are just waiting out there to be savored?

"Overall, we might do some back-of-the-envelope odds-making as follows: A 5% chance Alito isn’t the author; a 20% chance there is a badly fractured opinion, of which Alito is the technical author; a 25% chance of Alito writing a 6-3 conservative opinion; and a 40% chance he’s writing a 5-4 “Katie-bar-the-door” decision."


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2021/06/28/supreme_court_bingo_2021_edition_145995.html

That is the most likely scenario. RIP Jim Clyburn, Terri Sewell, Cori Bush, Bennie Thompson, Troy Carter, Steve Cohen, and Nikema Williams.

It’s not a redistricting case.

[SteveRogers]

As somebody who hasn’t been following this case: Is there any chance that the VRA districts actually get struck down, or is it just dooming about something not relevant to the case?

It’s just dooming about something not relevant to the case. This is a case about what standard courts are to apply to voter denial claims under Section 2 of the VRA. Voter dilution claims (I.e. redistricting) are a separate question with its own distinct body of case law where the Court has grappled with standards and tests, etc. I take it that ERM64man thinks that the Court will use this opportunity to strike down all of Section 2 as unconstitutional or something, and he doesn’t seem interested in hearing why that’s not how this works.

[SteveRogers]

Section 2 will eventually be struck down 6-3 or 5-4. The five part test established by Brnovich v. DNC is only temporary.

On what grounds?

[SteveRogers]

Section 2 will eventually be struck down 6-3 or 5-4. The five part test established by Brnovich v. DNC is only temporary.

On what grounds?

That Section 2 will be struck down.

But, like, what would the legal reasoning be?