Best chance for a 269 to 269 Tie in the Electoral College?

[SteveRogers]

So, this basically ends in Romney/Biden?

Most hilarious four years ever!

With the current House and Senate it would end Romney/Biden, but it'll be the 113th Congress that gets to break a tie.

The new congress would probably get to make the pick, but this isn't nearly as certain as people like to pretend. Originally under the 12th amendment it was the outgoing congress that got to break an electoral college deadlock. The 20th amendment changed the start dates of terms and  placed the start of the new congress before the start of the new president's term which implies that it would today be the incoming congress that would choose the president, but this isn't explicitly laid out anywhere in the constitution. Current federal law mandates that the electoral votes are counted before a joint session of congress on January 7 (4 days after the new congress takes power), but theoretically the outgoing congress could just pass a bill to move the counting of electoral votes up to December right after the electors meet. The outgoing House could then proceed to the election of the president. If Republicans were to lose the House in November, you could potentially have a nasty legal battle/constitutional crisis over which House gets to choose the president.

In such a scenario, would the election actually go to the House/Senate though? Wouldn't quasi-constitutional deal-making, along with political and legal maneuvering before the Electoral College votes be more likely?

This. Even if the candidates themselves didn't instigate it, it's not out of the question that a lone elector could decide to play hero "for the good of the country" and cross over to cast a faithless electoral vote for the popular vote winner.

If the election did get thrown to congress, I don't know how likely a Romney/Biden outcome would be, regardless of the composition of the senate. Assuming the Senate lets the House pick the President first before voting on the VP, I imagine cooler heads would prevail and a general consensus would emerge that it would be best for the country if the President and Vice President were of the same party. 

[SteveRogers]

If the election did get thrown to congress, I don't know how likely a Romney/Biden outcome would be, regardless of the composition of the senate. Assuming the Senate lets the House pick the President first before voting on the VP, I imagine cooler heads would prevail and a general consensus would emerge that it would be best for the country if the President and Vice President were of the same party. 

You think the losing party would just voluntarily give up the vice presidency in a 50/50 senate?  That seems far-fetched.  Imagine.....the 2012 election results are as follows:

House: GOP majority
Senate: 50/50 tie
Presidency: 269-269 tie, but the GOP majority House gives the presidency to Romney.

The Dems in the Senate are now going to elect Marco Rubio or Rob Portman or whoever as Vice President, so that the president and VP are of the same party, which would end up giving the GOP majorities in both houses of Congress plus the White House?  Very unlikely.

Of course, this assumes that every senator belongs to one of the two major parties.  Imagine if the decision comes down to the vote of Angus King....

Ok, if the Senate was 50/50 then yes, obviously the Democrats would elect Biden as VP in order to preserve control of the Senate. But otherwise isn't it somewhat likely that at least a couple Democratic Senators would make the political calculation that there just aren't that many points to be scored in the eyes of the public by electing a Democratic VP just to screw with the incoming Republican President?

[SteveRogers]

But otherwise isn't it somewhat likely that at least a couple Democratic Senators would make the political calculation that there just aren't that many points to be scored in the eyes of the public by electing a Democratic VP just to screw with the incoming Republican President?

I'm not sure how it's that big a deal if the VP is of a different party from the president.  It's not like the VP is some critical job, for which the president would be lost without him.

Well for one thing, if something were to happen to the President you probably don't want the White House suddenly switching parties while the country is in the middle of a crisis.