Washington state megathread

[Seattle]

Also, what's up with McKenna's refusal to release his taxes? I don't care, but the media for some reason seems to be protracting the story.

[Seattle]

Oh, hey. There is about to be a gubernatorial debate. You can watch it live on KOMO's site. Maybe I'll watch... but its probably going to be a snoozefest.

[Seattle]

Not to mention the former Washington Republican Party chairman, who has never voted for a Democrat, endorsed Cantwell.

What should be Inslee's vote percentage in Bellevue come the general election? 52%? 54%?

[Seattle]

So, Jim Postma crashed a plane...

Apparently he 'forgot' to put down the landing gear the second time he came around. Oops!

[Seattle]

Inslee winning by greater than 2% (having a clear win, not requiring days to wait for results):

I'd say about 30%, though I think it'll be similar to 2010, with Mckenna (or Inslee) not conceeding until 3-4 days after the election.

WA-01 held by the dems:

75%, I also am pretty confident that the Dem's will win here.

Democrats hold both the state house and senate:

100% for the House, 85% for the Senate.

Pot legalization passes:

I really have no idea if the polling for this issue is accurate, as there isn't much precedence to look at. I'm guessing if the Seattle suburbs vote for it, is passes. So.... 45%?

Gay Marriage upheld by voters:

I'm still concerned... but things are looking decent. The Marriage Equality group has tons of money for ads, so that's a plus for them. I'll go with 55%.

[Seattle]

SurveyUSA shows Obama leading Washington 54% - 38%

No surprise. He should be able to top Kerry's 2004 percentage, but I don't think he'll get more than 55% or 55.5%.

[Seattle]

The campaign opposing R-74 has paid for about $1.5 million in ads, so this may not last, but the overall polling seems to suggest that R-74 is doing better now than R-71 as the same period three years ago.

However, I think the pro R-74 people have quite a bit of additional money for ads, etc.
I'm no fan of Elway polls either, but the SUSA and PPP polls on R-74 have been suspiciously to good to be true....

[Seattle]

They already have solid majorities in both. It's likely that the Dems will lose one or two seats in the Senate, but I think the house will be about even.

[Seattle]

McKenna might win... But not if he loses "moderates."

He'll definitely lose moderates, since they're a safely Democratic voting bloc.  But if he can get 40% or more of the moderate vote, which there is a good chance of, he will probably win.

Mckenna won't get anywhere near that level for Democrat moderates. As for independents, the only way Mckenna wins is if he leads that group.

[Seattle]

It was coming in some way:

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Political-staffer-taking-heat-after-controversial-Tweet-171871901.html

Somebody meemed McKenna's photo.

[Seattle]

That's okay, its not great. Obama won the 6th by 10 (?) or so. Well, the old 6th, I don't know about the new one.

It would be more interesting to see who leads in the new 10th and 1st districts.

[Seattle]

Actually, Obama won the 6th and the 10th by 16% or 17%. 

Thanks! Lol, that's why I included the question mark.

[Seattle]

Yikes, the "The real Rob McKenna" ads are awful.

[Seattle]

Yikes, the "The real Rob McKenna" ads are awful.

The minimum wage ad is certainly better than McKenna's dumb "Jay Inslee hates firefighters!" ads.

In my opinion the minimum wage ads seem kinda silly. While McKenna's firefighter ads are even more ridiculous and just wrong, they paint a more frightening picture (I could see people believing them and caring about it).

[Seattle]

Yes on R-74 has gotten pretty much every major/minor newspaper endorsement...

Another one from Eastern Washington (The Tri-City Herald):

http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/10/14/2133827/same-sex-marriage-yes.html

[Seattle]

As far as I know, the only Reject editorial so far was a pretty lukewarm one from the Longview Daily News.

I think it's strange they didn't write for the yes side... I know Longview isn't socially liberal, but it sure is when compared to Wenatchee, Walla Walla, or the Tri-Cities.

Has the Yakima Herald choosen sides yet?

[Seattle]

Yeah, Inslee is leading more than Obama, sure.

How in the world did they come up with those numbers?

[Seattle]

^ They're usually pretty good.

Also, if this thread is locked, I will cry. This thread is the only thing worth coming to on this forum anymore.

Can't we get some sort of exemption?

[Seattle]

I think that's more of a fluff piece. I think there's a pretty slim chance of the Senate changing to R control. Also, the Democrats have a decent chance of picking up the Republican held 5th district, on Seattle's Eastside.

[Seattle]

Another interesting tidbit on the  "Do you think it should be legal or illegal for gay and lesbian couples to get married?" question.

The "West Wash" region thinks it should be legal 51-42, but the "East Wash" region was higher at 54-43. What? lol.

[Seattle]

As for the Senate, I like Cantwell well enough, but I also rather like Baumgartner as a person. He's an involved Catholic, and I'm sympathetic toward his schooling choices. Plus, Cantwell is going to win comfortably anyway, so I don't see much harm in voting for Baumgartner.

Cantwell is Catholic as well. Actually, Gregoire and Murray are Catholics too. Cantwell is a great senator in my opinion. She's definitely one of the quiter/under the radar senators out there. Speaking of radars, she's the reason why the Washington Coast has a new weather radar station - a huge help to forecasting. Anyway, it's little things like that, which really make me appreciate the job she's doing.

[Seattle]

The Yakima-Herald has endorsed Yes on R-74, which I think is the final 'major' newspaper to issue a decision.

http://www.yakima-herald.com/stories/2012/10/22/endorsements-all-couples-deserve-the-right-to-wed-approve-r-74

[Seattle]

The only positition I'm undecided on is for Lieutenant Governor.... Anyone want to sway me?

[Seattle]

Fair enough reasoning, thanks eveyone.

What do you guys think the county map for the pot initiative will look like? Similar to a Dem/Rep split or more funky?

[Seattle]

The Koster DelBene race was going to be close, but after "the rape thing" comment and his position on abortion, I don't see him winning this district.

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Koster-says-rape-thing-not-cause-for-abortion-176661851.html