Washington state megathread

[Seattle]

This is the first year I can remember that I'll be returning my ballot on election day. Oops! It's been a busy few weeks and given my evening plans it'll be a race to get my ballot to a drop box by 8.

I'll be looking at results for LD-26 (senate), LD-42 (all positions), LD-10 (Dave Paul), and LD-44 (atlasian).

I'm in agreement that WA-3 will be JHB/Perez and Newhouse is fine.

As for the 46th, I like Valdez, but will be voting for Gross + Hadeel Jeanne, even though she's withdrawn from the race (I think she's still on the ballot?). Unsure for Pos 2.

[Seattle]

My notes thus far:

LD-10 -
Dave Paul (D, inc) up 54.6 - 45.3
Clyde Shavers (D) up 52.5 - 47.7 Greg Gilday (R, inc) that would be a pickup... what's going on here

LDs 17/18 - Vancouver burbs forever stuck in Lean R territory. The 17th is Biden +3.6 and 18th is Trump +0, I have him winning by 23 votes.

LD-25 - Puyallup and exurbs also forever stuck in Lean R. Biden +1.8 and the Ds didn't even find a candidate to run for one of the House positions.

LD-26 - Gig Harbor bluening continues
Emily Randall (D, inc) up 52 - 48 (Rs combined) She looks to be in a decent position for general
Adison Richards (D) up 50.5 - 49.4 Spencer Hutchins (R) another pickup, although tight
Michelle Caldier (R, inc) up 54.6 - 45.2 Matt Macklin (D)

LD-42 - the only concerning district for Ds, although I think Western not being in session may be responsible for some underperformance?
Rs combined (Simon Sefzik will be the nominee) 53 - 47 Sharon Shewmake (D)
Rs combined (Tawsha Thompson) 51.3 - 48.7 Alicia Rule (D, inc)
Rs combined (Dan Johnson) 51.8 - 48.2 Combined Ds (Joe Timmons)

LD-47 -
Lol only mentioning that Pos 2 is looking to be D vs D thanks to three Rs
Chris Stearns (D) 34.7 - Shukri Olow (D) 18.4 & growing, Barry Knowles (R) 17.8

[Seattle]

Looks like Ds gained a seat in both the senate and the house.
Perpetually competitive LD-42 elected Rep Sharon Shewmake to the senate by about 1.2% over appointed incumbent Sefzik (who replaced Doug Erickson when he passed from Covid).

Ds also very narrowly picked up a seat in the house in LD-10, where Clyde Shavers is ahead of incumbent Greg Gilday by .24%.

Emily Randall (D) narrowly hung on to her senate seat in LD-26 against Jesse Young (R) by 1.7%. However, Rs held on to the house seat vacated by Young by .98% with Spencer Hutchins winning over Addison Richards, who had narrowly lead for a good week before very late ballots flipped the race.

[Seattle]

Is Inslee going to run for a fourth term? I really hope not... I would like to see both him and Cantwell retire (that's not happening).

I'm sure Bob Ferguson and Dow Constantine will run for governor, probably some state legislators too.

[Seattle]

From my limited conversations with friends involved in the state D party, it sounds like Inslee is going to indeed run for a 4th term. Anyone hearing anything different? Pretty bummed if so.

[Seattle]

U.S. judge picks new WA legislative map, moving Latino district (LD-14/15)
Under the new map, the Latino-majority district unites Latino communities from East Yakima in Yakima County to Pasco in Franklin County.

https://crosscut.com/politics/2024/03/us-judge-picks-new-wa-legislative-map-moving-latino-district

LD-14 becomes a Biden district and would likely elect a D slate - especially in a presidential year.

[Seattle]

Dave's Redistricting actually has the new districts mapped.

Districts with noticeable changes (Biden #s):

LD-5:    59.6-36.4 D >>> 57.6-39.0 D | Likely D
LD-8:    55.9-40.2 R >>> 59.3-37.1 R | Safe R
LD-12:  49.3-47.4 R >>> 49.6-47.0 D | Lean R to Tilt R
LD-14:  51.7-45.6 R >>> 56.6-41.0 D | Likely R to Likely D
LD-15:  48.87-48.68 D >>> 59.0-38.4 R | Tilt R to Safe R
LD-16:   58.3-38.0 R >>> 55.6-41.3 D | Safe R
LD-17:   50.3-46.7 D >>> 51.7-45.2 D| Tilt R to Tossup

[Seattle]

The 17th's appendage probably has 5k people, so it would be a relatively easy fix to give to 14. Shift 20, 2, 31, 5, and 12. Then add like three precincts of East Wenatchee from 7 to 12. Repeat adjustments from 7, 13, 16, to 8 that takes some urban, but not overwhelmingly Hispanic Kennewick neighborhoods from 14.