WA-8: Reichert retiring

[Seattle]

I remember from an earlier discussion, that there are no local dems within the district with a profile to run here - Democrats are probably going to need to recruit a popular businessperson/teacher/veteran/ etc. But this is probably the second guaranteed pickup after FL-27 since it has a D+1 to Even PVI.

Two-term state senator Mark Mullet of LD5? Which is almost entirely comprised within WA-8.

[Seattle]

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Oops, I seem to distinctly remember that was said by another WA poster - guess I was wrong.

Granted, it would mean the Rs have a chance of once again reclaiming the state senate with their likely upcoming loss in LD-45.

[Seattle]

I'm not quite as optimistic. Tossup D.

This is fairly R district downballot. It's got suburbs like Issaquah, Sammamish, Auburn, and Kent that are fairly D on both sides of ballot, but the unincorporated rural communities in Pierce County (and some of King) and smaller suburbs, Covington, Maple Valley, Black Diamond, Enumclaw, and Bonney Lake are not. Combine that with solidly red Eastern portion it becomes a turnout game.

Anti-trump sentiment will probably be enough to get a good D over the top. It'll still be a tough election.

[Seattle]

Anyways, according to DRA, Rossi won this district 55-45 during his 2010 Senate run, so if he runs I imagine he wins.

That was in a 4% loss for him statewide. Hardly typical for a Congressional race in Washington. Hard to imagine the 2018 results being that favorable for Republicans. Rossi would have a chance, but no one should be saying that he will definitely win.

Oh, and as far as the Washington gubernatorial race goes, some wise American men were fond of telling me last year "you lost, get over it." I think that may apply here.

You're side lost by 70,000 votes Dino lost by 100ish votes after 3 counts.

Perhaps the best thing I've ever seen on Atlas.

[Seattle]

A glance at the WA general thread would reveal that there is indeed a good D bench.
Mallot has 4 young daughters, so I see why he looks to be out.

Pat Sullivan would a good candidate. Hurst as well, but isn't he in 70s?

[Seattle]

Tossup R -> Tossup R

Let's see if the R Establishment coalesces around Rossi.

[Seattle]

Agree with Ritterseiser probably being the strongest, though I like Das.

Also the Stranger employs some very good writers (Heidi Groover) and some very annoying d**kheads (Dan Savage)

Savage has coasted on making fun of Rick Santorum a decade ago for a loooong time

Though I do credit him for being a major voice in the marriage equality debate in WA in 2012. Crazy how fast that issue died down in just a half decade

Also on housing. http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/05/22/25158186/doing-something-real-about-gentrification-and-displacement

[Seattle]

Northern Virginia is totally different then the Seattle suburbs

Huh?

Democrats won every single county except one in the Census definition of Seattle metropolitan area and they won that county in 2012. But if DMV suburbs are too Democratic for Greedo how about Atlanta's GA-06 Handel won statewide and hold a county commissioner seat there and barely beat Ossoff who is the definition of a Generic Democrat .

The 8th is leaning democrat suburbs of Seattle the suburbs and exurbs in pierce county and super conservative central Washington. Totally different than GA-6 or VA-10.

You're right, NOVA's suburbs are different from Seattle's. Seattle's are considerably more D to the extent that exurban areas vote 50-50.

I think the election is a tossup, with Rossi slightly favored as of now. We don't know who the D candidate will be. That might not even matter if a D +10 environment holds, but I'll hedge my bets for now.