Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre) - Comparison to 2016-Pres counts in parenthesis
2018 Gov
D: 55,654 (+6%)
R: 50,642 (-36%)
T: 107,681 (-21%)
2018 Sen
D: 49,076 (-6%)
R: 57,965 (-26%)
T: 108,092 (-20%)
2016 Pres
D: 52,451
R: 78,688
T: 135,901
Beaver County (Pittsburgh MSA)
2018 Gov
D: 36,141 (+11%)
R: 30,571 (-37%)
T: 67,829 (-20%
2018 Sen
D: 34,403 (+6%)
R: 31,895 (-34%)
T: 67,579 (-20%)
2016 Pres
D: 32,531
R: 48,167
T: 84,462
Here are the statewide figures for comparison:
Statewide
2018 Gov
D: 2,850,210 (-3%)
R: 2,015,266 (-32%)
T: 4,941,392 (-20%)
2018 Sen
D: 2,745,018 (-6%)
R: 2,109,023 (-29%)
T: 4,935,119 (-20%)
2016 Pres
D: 2,926,441
R: 2,970,733
T: 6,166,729
It would be better to compare a few counties, but that's tedious with either PA's official data or the newly castrated non-members version of the Atlas.
Wolf did well in the Northwest, but you would need precinct level numbers to determine how much Trump-Wolf voters had to do with this. Casey's massive under-performance here provides some sense, as he lost about one in five of Wolf's voters. Clearly Trump's coalition here includes more than its share of civic illiterates who don't bother turning out in midterm years. (Much like that subset of Obama voters who couldn't be bothered when their TV President wasn't on the ballot.)
The story in the Southwest looks similar, but with a smaller gap between Casey and Wolf and a larger swing back toward Democrats. Conor Lamb, who now represents the entire county, obviously has something to do with this. Again, it's striking that numbers up and down the ballot look similar except for the massive difference in the Republican total.
If anyone had precinct level results up and down the ballot in both years, I wonder what kind of an effect you could show in voter turnout based on competitive Congressional seats alone.
Looks to me as if a lot of normally Republican voters abstained (turned off by Trump?) but mostly didn't vote Democratic. So the Republicans have had a bad year, but it's probably not irreversible.
