Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Adam Griffin]

Ukraine calls for Russia to be booted off the internet

Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov sent a letter to the president of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) on Monday.

He asked ICANN to revoke — either permanently or temporarily — the domains .ru and .su.

Russia will have no internet soon.

Don't count your chickens too soon.  I will be very very surprised if ICANN agrees to this action.

Wondering how that would even work (Let alone if that would be a good precedent)?

Anybody want to provide greater perspectives on the process, logistics, technology, etc....?

Basically, there are two large data-centers on either side of the US (I believe) with 7 cryptographic keys stored in each them. Each one belongs to and can only be accessed by 1 of ICANN's 14 "keyholders" inside the premises after passing through multiple layers of security (there are also 7 "back-up keys & keyholders" outside of the US who take charge if/when something happens to a primary keyholder). At the center of each facility is hardware where the keys can be inserted/injected and root changes to the DNS system can be made. As far as I know, all primary keys must be used to make any DNS changes. It's very sci-fi in nature.

https://www.icann.org/en/blogs/details/the-problem-with-the-seven-keys-13-2-2017-en
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/feb/28/seven-people-keys-worldwide-internet-security-web

The east and west coast ceremonies each have seven keyholders, with a further seven people around the world who could access a last-resort measure to reconstruct the system if something calamitous were to happen. Each of the 14 primary keyholders owns a traditional metal key to a safety deposit box, which in turn contains a smartcard, which in turn activates a machine that creates a new master key. The backup keyholders have something a bit different: smartcards that contain a fragment of code needed to build a replacement key-generating machine. Once a year, these shadow holders send the organisation that runs the system – the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (Icann) – a photograph of themselves with that day's newspaper and their key, to verify that all is well.

[Adam Griffin]

15-20 years?! Putin will probably be dead by then, he's nearly reached the average lifespan of a Russian, 73, and already passed the average lifespan of a Russian male, 68. I agree that this war could last that long, especially if fronts settle (similar to what happened in the Donbass after early 2015). But I'd hope, for Ukraine's sake, some external event would cause it to end before 15-20 years. (An event such as regime change in Russia, NATO intervention, etc.)

This would be like saying the average US President should die when they're 78, when for decades, practically all of them live well into their 80s or 90s. Wealth and privilege make it possible for some kick-ass healthcare solutions (even in a country like Russia). Gorbachev is still alive and kicking at 91. Even Borracho Yeltsin made it to 76.

FDR and LBJ were the last two Presidents not to make it to 80: one had polio and the other drank heavily & smoked like a chimney (and of course life expectancy was considerably lower 60-80 years ago). World leaders make it to insanely old age compared to average people unless they get assassinated or have a death-wish.

[Adam Griffin]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

[Adam Griffin]

So... here's something I've been thinking about for the past 2-3 days, and not wall of text, which apparently some people find an annoying posting trait on my part.

So early on in the financial reporting it was estimated that Russia was spending $10 Billion / Day in Ukrainian military activities.

I am assuming these would be estimated additional costs beyond regular budgeted Russian military expenses.

We know that the Russian Gvt Financial Reserves are somewhere around $650 Billion.

Many of the Russian Financial assets are held in overseas financial institutions which are currently unavailable to the Russian Gvt.

Despite dramatic shift in Russian financial holdings away from the Dollar, Pound, and Euros and increasing shift towards Gold and currency from other countries, it's pretty clear that Putin's "slush fund" is much lower than $650 Billion.

At what point does the cost of war in Ukraine start to dramatically drain Putin's stash to the point where Russia needs to go deficit financing to borrow money from elsewhere?

Do we have anybody here who can break this down in greater detail and is the math totally off?

I saw a tweet somewhere to this effect (though the number was 20 billion), but from a bit of deducing, I determined those figures were initially quoted in RUB (which based on the aforementioned figure, broke down to ~$250m per day).

As an example, at the height of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars (which had comparable deployed manpower), the US was "only" spending a combined $15 billion - per month. That worked out to $500m per day for us when fighting two major conflicts simultaneously, so it's in line with the $200-300m/day estimate for Russia. I can't see any fathomable way Russia is actually spending billions per day on their military operations. Maybe if you factor in the real effects of sanctions you could come close to such a number, but not on the "special operation" itself.

[Adam Griffin]

Though it does say "Kyiv region" - how much bigger is that than the city itself?

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

Just to temper the sentiment, it appears at first glance that these are merely reconnaissance drones (TUAS; akin to the Russian one that Ukrainians shot down after flying into Poland/Romania) and not Predator/Bayraktar TB2 UAV drones.

[Adam Griffin]

This might very well be the best time in decades for nations to engage in "reclamation efforts" against long-term Russian expansion. One can only imagine what might happen if there was a coordinated effort where Japan tried to retake the Kurils, Georgia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Finland with Karelia (maybe even Kaliningrad by Germany, Poland and/or Lithuania)...

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

Just to temper the sentiment, it appears at first glance that these are merely reconnaissance drones (TUAS; akin to the Russian one that Ukrainians shot down after flying into Poland/Romania) and not Predator/Bayraktar TB2 UAV drones.

Those were the ones sent before the war. The ones being sent now are Switchblades. They can do reconnaissance, but they are also "kamikaze" drones that can blow up lightly armoured vehicles/tanks, depending on the model (the ones being sent are probably the earlier, weaker and more numerous ones).

They don't compare to the Bayraktar, but they give Ukraine a short-term boost to its capacity to harass convoys, and one that could be renewed with the supply of more switchblades - in theory.

I have written about my scepticism of this because there was no indication that Ukraine had training with switchblades. If there wasn't covert training, there are three scenarios: (a)the learning curve is really fast, (b)there is a significant delay while Ukraine trains with weapons it can't use, and (c)Ukraine puts them into use ineffectively with underprepared operators.

The switchblades are relatively new tech and the US stocks and production of them is rather limited. Even if Ukraine uses them well, resupply of these drones to the extent that e.g. anti-tank missiles are resupplied could become unrealistic.

They also seem to be extremely economical. The big boy Predator is millions of dollars per unit, whereas (if Wikipedia is anywhere near accurate) says the Switchblade cost $6,000 a piece. Almost seems unbelievable, but if such a thing can be used in a "kamikaze" sense, that's pretty dang affordable.

[Adam Griffin]

Can ya'll seriously stop feeding the troll? Most of the last 3 pages have been taken up by a inane debate caused by one or two bootlickers

You'll never see them again:

[Adam Griffin]

a Russian website is suggesting he has been captured by the Russian authorities

On April 9, a soldier Alexei Bychkov was detained in Russia, who was recording a video with sexual abuse of a baby, Vot Tak writes . A day earlier, a thread about Bychkov with a video was published on Twitter , where the man first says that he is recording a “fierce video”, after which he rubs an eyelash brush between the baby’s buttocks, and then licks her and drives her in the face. The time and place of the video shooting is unknown.

Information about Bychkov publishedVKontakte user Kostya Kikeev. According to him, Bychkov was born in 1997, registered in the Stavropol Territory and lives in the Krasnodar Territory. In addition, on March 8, 2022, he was fined for transporting children without a special seat in a car registered to Anastasia Tsekres. In correspondence with Vot Tak, Cecres stated that she had sold his wife's car, but she did not know "this bastard". Later, she told Vot Tak that she saw Bychkov's videos, wrote a statement to the police, and the man was detained.

The video with the baby is not the only one in which Bychkov demonstrates his sexual deviations. Several more videos have been posted on VKontakte, where he also commits violence against children. On others, Bychkov demonstrates his genitals, puts various objects into his anus and licks them.

Well at least we now know why he actually got arrested!

[Adam Griffin]

Moldova may not be "mountainous" per se but it has more variable terrain than most of Ukraine. It is adjacent to the Carpathians, and while you're not dealing with huge peaks and the like, you can easily find variations of several hundred meters over a small linear distance; rivers, valleys and hills; etc.

Case in point (overlay the 2 if needed): image 1  image 2

Easily navigable in the grand scheme of things, but still rougher than pretty much anywhere outside of the broader Lyiv metro of Ukraine.

[Adam Griffin]

Whew

[Adam Griffin]

Whew

I don't see what Russian homophobic propaganda has to do with Cuba's referendum, but ok.

You don't see the hilarity in how even old socialist compatriot nations are no longer embracing their viewpoint on such?

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like the Russians are going HAM: practically all of the strikes you see on the map are within the past few hours. I don't think I've ever seen this live map lit up as much as it is right now.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm scared (not in the faux Woodbury way) that public opinion is turning against Ukraine. They used to get consistent support and now their twitter posts are full of pro-Russia commentors.

Social media farming in India is cheap!