CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Adam Griffin]

I really do think the recall choices for Ds will follow the top-of-the-ballot dynamic that we see throughout most of the South in contests where multiple, no-name candidates often run in primaries and subsequently overperform. I do imagine Pattrath will benefit at least some from this - for multiple reasons (though whether earns the most votes as a D or not is completely debatable). First, at least a miniscule handful of voters probably have heard of him over the other contenders due to media machinations. Secondly, he's fairly close to the "top" of the ballot.

However, "top of the ballot" in CA is two-dimensional in this case rather than simply up-and-down the ballot. Some will scan the ballot in a predominantly left-to-right fashion; others top-to-bottom.  Start factoring all of this in and I think the top-of-the-ballot status in CA gets more complex.

If it follows this, then Drake may be the best-performing Democrat, but McGowan, Paffrath & Serrato will all benefit to varying degrees as well.

[Adam Griffin]

No is outperforming not only Newsom but even Biden in all of these counties (ED vote may change that slightly, but this is quickly looking like a 25-point stomping).

[Adam Griffin]

Tentative 2018-2021 swing map:

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, I can't see how there aren't another 300k votes (possibly more) in Orange.

[Adam Griffin]

Some loose estimates on what is outstanding:

1500k - Everywhere else
900k - Los Angeles
375k - San Diego
300k - Orange
270k - San Bernardino
250k - Alameda
240k - Sacramento
230k - Riverside
210k - Santa Clara
140k - Contra Costa
90k  - Fresno

Two-thirds of the remaining vote should be in these 10 counties (compared to around 72% of state's population).

[Adam Griffin]

Some loose estimates on what is outstanding:

1500k - Everywhere else
900k - Los Angeles
375k - San Diego
300k - Orange
270k - San Bernardino
250k - Alameda
240k - Sacramento
230k - Riverside
210k - Santa Clara
140k - Contra Costa
90k  - Fresno

Two-thirds of the remaining vote should be in these 10 counties (compared to around 72% of state's population).

How much of this is VBM?

I'm not going to try to guess by county, but I've heard 80/20 batted about as the mail/ED split overall.

I don't even know if any in-person ballots have been counted yet? If not, then it'd be somewhere around 55% ED, 45% VBM.

If some have been counted, then the VBM share could be half or more. Maybe somebody else knows how many ED votes have/have not been counted thus far. If no ED votes have been counted yet, then roughly 80% of mail ballots have already been counted.

[Adam Griffin]

Election results in California are certified 3 weeks after the Election Day. Results will trickle in as the counties report them. I definitely think more than 66% of the vote or whatever number the media is reporting is in though.

I've been operating under the assumption that turnout would be somewhere in the 12.5-13.0m range: do you think it's substantially lower?

[Adam Griffin]

Welp, the 2018-2021 swing map has changed quite a bit since that preliminary one. At least we know a lot of the ED vote is now in!

[Adam Griffin]

As of one hour ago / 71% reporting / 9,224,190 votes counted:

https://twitter.com/adamgriffin/status/1438358356763217924

[Adam Griffin]

CASOS said there were 2.9 million ballots left to be counted (as of a few hours ago). Looks like we're on track for ~12.5m ballots.

[Adam Griffin]

Mostly polarization + slight Hispanic R drift (or disengagement), but it's kinda weird how there's this random patch of D-trending counties in the middle of the Northern inland. Wonder what that's about.

My first instinct was "pothead tourists being priced out of the [good parts of the] Emerald Triangle [Humboldt/Mendocino] and deciding to locate somewhat nearby", but I really don't know jack about most of California.