Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,092
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2020, 06:05:22 AM » |
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Yeah, this year's model really seems to be trying to over-represent disparate remote possibilities/outcomes in a way that previous cycles did not; the same projections showing Biden with a 10% chance of winning MO and Trump with a 10% chance of winning OR more or less say all that need to be said.
If I wanted to be skeptical and/or facetious, I'd say that this is built on Sweaty Nate's insecurities with 2016 outcomes and just wanting something that gives more cover to say "See? You can't be wrong with probability forecasts! We even said x-candidate had y-% chance of winning z-state! That's as often as [insert random statistical probability here]!".
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