GA-PPP: Ossoff +1

[Adam Griffin]

Biden's probably going to need to win by 3-4 points for either Senate candidate to have a shot at clearing 50% in November. Given the runoff concept for non-presidential races + standard drop-off dynamics in GA, it's very difficult to see Ossoff earning a majority if Biden doesn't (and even harder for Warnock, given there's still some evidence in GA of black under-performance & there's like 8 other Democrats on the ballot in his race). Biden can probably win the state with as little as 48.5% under the right circumstances, but Ossoff and Warnock don't have that same luxury.

Still, I guess some Democrats will be able to celebrate potential pyrrhic victories if polls like this are accurate and the Democratic Senate candidates earn the most votes in November? Even in '18, we saw that runoffs = death for Democrats, so no need to delve into "2008 was a lifetime ago" dialog.

[Adam Griffin]

Do 69% of Georgians really live in the Atlanta metro area? I think it’s just slightly over 50%.

65% of Georgia lived in the ATL media market in 2010; I'm sure that number has grown by at least 2-3 percentage points since (plus a lot of rural downstate doesn't produce turnout matching its population), so if they're using media markets as (quasi)delineators, then it's accurate.

EDIT: yeah, after closer inspection, I'm pretty sure PPP's regional categories line up as such (they consolidated Columbus + all the other partial media markets into "Other"):