Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[Adam Griffin]

6 precincts in EBR remain (in the end, EBR will swing around 3 points to Rispone):

[Adam Griffin]

Crunching some quick and rough numbers: in all the (6 counties) that swung to JBE compared to 2015, he netted about 30k votes when factoring in swing & share of electorate changes.

He leads by 40k as of now, meaning that if he had performed exactly as in 2015 in Orleans, Jefferson, St Tammany (+ SC, SJB & East Carroll), he would have staved off just enough losses elsewhere to eek out a win regardless; something akin to the KY margin (~0.5 point win).

[Adam Griffin]

Can Edwards net another 4K from the remaining Baton Rouge votes? If he does, Democrats will have won the overall vote for the 2019 gubernatorial races.

I assume there will be a few thousand provisional ballots for LA statewide that will lean heavily (say 2:1) in favor of JBE, but we won't know for several days.

[Adam Griffin]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/status/1195926921269456896

lmao

"rum"
"Oresidemt"
"Vongrrss"
*kooky conspiracies*

Key word is definitely "rum": you can see it kicking in mid-post!

[Adam Griffin]

For those of you who weren't following, here is each parish's 2015/2019 results + swings in spreadsheet form:

2015/2019 LA Gov Results/Swings

Biggest Swings:
Cameron: 48.85 points
Avoyelles: 38.61 points
Jeff Davis: 37.88 points
Evangeline: 36.28 points
Allen: 35.15 points
Beauregard: 33.06 points
Vernon: 31.50 points
Vermilion: 30.32 points
St. Martin: 29.78 points
Acadia: 29.05 points

[Adam Griffin]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

I'm in no position to commentate, but like in much of the deep south, Louisiana's democratic caucus is now dominated by African Americans. GOP packing of the AA vote and the collapse of rural whites mean all that are  left are the committed AA legislative core - who are the least likely of any demographic to vote with the GOP on day to day issues.

Yes, but (in reference to what was mentioned above) you haven't seen the types of shenanigans that can occur (and have occurred) behind closed doors post-VRA in the South between the GOP and black EOs with regard to situations such as reapportionment. I could totally see JBE's reapportionment veto getting overridden if there are a couple of legislators in black-majority districts who would like to go from "remotely-competitive-in-worst-case-scenario 55% black districts" to "never-have-to-run-another-primary-or-general-election-campaign 60-65% black districts" - and the GOP will be all too willing to accommodate.

Fortunately, this is nowhere nearly as common as it was some decades ago (even then, it was more commonly seen at the county and municipal level) and there probably aren't too many "vulnerable" types left who have any genuine excuse to do this - I imagine any who do may be in rural areas that are hemorrhaging population. It's also harder to skirt the spirit of VRA by following its letter these days given comprehensive data-sets are more available for analysis ("packing" isn't as easily accomplished).

[Adam Griffin]

JBE's Victory Speech, for those who wanted it:

[Adam Griffin]

This is why we don't want random idiots joining the forum en masse

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195966165610356736

[Adam Griffin]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

[Adam Griffin]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

It dawned on me that a trend map would be really informative here, so one can see how much of this shift in rural areas was a result of rispone Performing markedly better than David Vitter, versus an actual receding of support for Democrats.

Atlas Trend ("change in D-R margin from the previous election relative to the national change in D-R margin"):



Though you may have had something else in mind (i.e. county swings relative to state swing).

[Adam Griffin]

Correct Adam. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

Hopefully you can see why I think it would be a genuinely worthwhile analysis as opposed to just going down an election nerd rabbit-hole?

Yep.

Here's the map you're looking for (trend; county swing relative to statewide swing):

[Adam Griffin]

^^ That 2003 result is really crazy when you look at it. Spend a good deal of time assessing margins and vote counts county-by-county and it starts to make sense, but given that Jindal barely won any counties (and most that he did, he barely won; Bossier, Lafayette, Ouachita, EBR), coming so close boggles the mind initially. It's probably the best/most extreme example in the 21st century of the old Deep South voting patterns.

A tied game in Jefferson & St Tammany alone would've led to Jindal losing by 10.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

Just ran the rough numbers in DRA: McCain carried it by 9 and it's a R+6 district based on 2012/16 (guessing Romney won it by 7-8 and Trump by 10-12).

I'd guess a 5-6 point win for Rispone just by eyeballing it.

[Adam Griffin]

Do we know the final racial breakdown of the electorate and what percentage the Governor got with white and black voters?

I've seen multiple educated estimates from sources that claim anywhere from 30-34% and 95-98% respectively. As Dingo said, it'll be easier to figure out once the final results are in since LA reports turnout data in a similar manner to GA along racial/parish/precinct lines. Just taking a guess, but I figure the electorate was still whiter than it was in 2016 (though less so than in 2015).