MS: SurveyMonkey/NBC News: Reeves (R) +7 vs. Hood (D)

[Adam Griffin]

The sample is only 22% Black? Really?

Just for reference, the 2015 primary was around 34% black, the 2016 presidential primary was 29% black and the 2018 general was 32% black. I think an average of those 3 would be a reasonable expectation for overall turnout (31.7%).

I'm not sure of the exact figures for the 2015 general, but it's hard to see Robert Gray of all people winning nearly 20% of the white vote (which is what would be mathematically required with a 22% black electorate going 9:1 in his favor).

Of course, for Hood to get 40% in a poll with a 22% black sample, the white share of the vote may be out of wack, too (assuming 85% of blacks in the poll support Hood, that'd require 27% of the non-black vote for Hood as well). Granted, Hood needs around 30% of the white vote to have a shot, so who knows.

[Adam Griffin]

The sample is only 22% Black? Really?

Just for reference, the 2015 primary was around 34% black, the 2016 presidential primary was 29% black and the 2018 general was 32% black. I think an average of those 3 would be a reasonable expectation for overall turnout (31.7%).

I'm not sure of the exact figures for the 2015 general, but it's hard to see Robert Gray of all people winning nearly 20% of the white vote (which is what would be mathematically required with a 20% black electorate going 9:1 in his favor).

Of course, for Hood to get 40% in a poll with a 22% black sample, the white share of the vote may be out of wack, too (assuming 85% of blacks in the poll support Hood, that'd require 27% of the non-black vote for Hood as well). Granted, Hood needs around 30% of the white vote to have a shot, so who knows.

Great point Adam.

And I probably could've simplified it to just this: it's not uncommon in the Deep South for polls to underestimate black turnout and overestimate white D support, but often, the two discrepancies end up cancelling each other out in the actual election. I would be surprised if Hood is at 40% come Election Day, but a 7-point margin isn't necessarily out of the equation.