Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

ABM Voting, Saturday-Monday: 19,269 ballots were returned, for a grand total of 2,524,348 votes.

As of Monday, 234,347 mail ballots have been returned and accepted, out of 271,185 total valid ballots: a 86.42% return rate.

Breakdown of Sat-Mon voters:

Code:

10358 	White	53.75%
5544 	Black	28.77%
978           Asian	5.08%
468    	Latino	2.43%
1921 	Other	9.97%

11668	Female	60.55%
7524 	Male	        39.05%	
77            Other         0.40%

Final pre-Election Day totals:

Code:

1448108	White	57.37%
736515	Black	29.18%
48475	Asian	1.92%
47779       Latino	1.89%
243471	Other	9.64%

1403585	Female	55.60%
1114550	Male	        44.15%	
6213	        Other	0.25%

[Adam Griffin]

27 counties offering Saturday voting today after the state Supreme Court overruled SoS decision to bar it given today is a state holiday.

53% of the state's vote and population are in these 27 counties. Biden won them 64-35; the remaining 132 counties combined were Trump 66-33.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c7977bd6-1719-49f4-aa37-e8ab6593ed07




17 counties will offer Sunday voting tomorrow (52% of state's pop/votes). These counties combined were 64-35 Biden; remaining 142 counties were 65-34 Trump.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::86e6f8e0-faca-4109-b255-ba4b460c2f0b

[Adam Griffin]

With regard to the above discussion, I pretty much called it last week. The main problem with the old plurality FPTP system (45% +1) is that it still presents the same fundamental challenge for the GOP as the current system (i.e. that winning Democratic candidates are coming in first place and above 45% anyway).

The only benefits to 45% + 1 would be either in favor of Democrats (see above), or non-partisan: it would reduce the number of primary and general runoffs occurring, particularly at the local level (along with perhaps eliminating the occasional need for statewide runoffs; see SoS and PSC contests, 2018). This might reduce the number of runoff elections an individual county would have to conduct and therefore save a bit of money, but in practice (especially in primaries), it would more often just reduce the number of contests occurring during a particular runoff that would happen anyway (again, think of a county primary where one race has candidates at 37-33-30, while another has a race where it's 46-40-4: all that happens is the number of races in a runoff drops from 2 to 1, and the county still has to go through all of the logistical and financial trouble anyway).

IRV is the best solution for them because it at least gives them a chance to absorb enough Libertarian vote to hit 50%, and by the time it no longer can work in their favor, no electoral system (save the old county unit system being declared constitutional again) will be able to save them:

If any reform along these lines are made, it'll be IRV/"RCV": this will help the GOP absorb a majority of the Libertarian vote into their corner without the need for another election while also not having to face various turnout uncertainties/discrepancies.

I really doubt we'll ever see any outright abolition - as I mentioned before, perhaps a reversion to 45% + 1 vote as was the case during most of the 1990s/early 2000s, but absent that, status quo or IRV/"RCV" are the only other plausible choices.

Also, as an interesting side-note:

I also didn't know that Georgia implemented IRV this year for military/overseas voters:

Under the new system, military and overseas voters are sent instant-runoff ballots for the general election. It allows them to rank their second- and third-choice candidates upfront, rather than having to vote again in a runoff. If no candidate receives more than 50% support in the general election, votes for the highest-ranked remaining candidates would then be tallied.

State Rep. Wes Cantrell, R-Woodstock, co-sponsored the instant runoff legislation that was folded into the elections overhaul. He thinks that if ranked voting is successful with overseas and military voters, it could be expanded to all Georgia voters, making runoffs moot.

[Adam Griffin]

All doped up and nowhere to go!

https://www.cbsnews.com/atlanta/news/new-georgia-house-republican-arrested-on-drug-and-theft-charges/

WINDER, Ga. (AP) — An incoming Georgia state representative has been arrested after investigators said he stole prescription narcotics at the retirement complex he manages.

Danny Rampey, 67, of Statham, was arrested Thursday, jail records show. He was charged with six counts of obtaining drugs by misrepresentation or theft, six counts of exploiting an elder or disabled adult, five counts of burglary, and one count of drug possession.

Rampey remained jailed Friday with no bail set. It's unclear if he has a lawyer.

Rampey, a Republican, faced no general election opposition in his November victory in House District 119, which includes most of Barrow County. Rep. Terry England, the current officeholder, is retiring. Rampey easily won an earlier GOP primary.

The Athens Banner-Herald reports Rampey was arrested at Magnolia Estates of Winder, an assisted living complex that Rampey has managed for 38 years, according to his campaign website.

Barrow County Sheriff Jud Smith said Rampey is believed to have burglarized a house that is part of the complex. Officials said the investigation began about two weeks ago after missing prescription narcotics were reported. Deputies said they arrested Rampey as he was leaving an unoccupied unit on Thursday.

[Adam Griffin]

All doped up and nowhere to go!

https://www.cbsnews.com/atlanta/news/new-georgia-house-republican-arrested-on-drug-and-theft-charges/

WINDER, Ga. (AP) — An incoming Georgia state representative has been arrested after investigators said he stole prescription narcotics at the retirement complex he manages.

Danny Rampey, 67, of Statham, was arrested Thursday, jail records show. He was charged with six counts of obtaining drugs by misrepresentation or theft, six counts of exploiting an elder or disabled adult, five counts of burglary, and one count of drug possession.

Rampey remained jailed Friday with no bail set. It's unclear if he has a lawyer.

Rampey, a Republican, faced no general election opposition in his November victory in House District 119, which includes most of Barrow County. Rep. Terry England, the current officeholder, is retiring. Rampey easily won an earlier GOP primary.

The Athens Banner-Herald reports Rampey was arrested at Magnolia Estates of Winder, an assisted living complex that Rampey has managed for 38 years, according to his campaign website.

Barrow County Sheriff Jud Smith said Rampey is believed to have burglarized a house that is part of the complex. Officials said the investigation began about two weeks ago after missing prescription narcotics were reported. Deputies said they arrested Rampey as he was leaving an unoccupied unit on Thursday.

Did voters in his district know all this already, or did they not give a damn?  

Looks like all this began after the election:

Officials said the investigation began about two weeks ago after missing prescription narcotics were reported. Deputies said they arrested Rampey as he was leaving an unoccupied unit on Thursday.

Though if this had came to light after the primary but before the general, he would have still won (72-27 Trump HD). Possibly could have sunk him in the primary, though from what I gather, he didn't really have any strong opposition.

[Adam Griffin]

Swing, 2016 Presidential - 2022 Senatorial Runoff (D+7.89):

D-swinging counties comprise 84% of state population; R-swinging counties comprise 16% of state pop.

Biggest Swingers:
Henry: D+28.17
Rockdale: D+25.31
Douglas: D+22.84
Gwinnett: D+18.48
Fayette: D+18.21
Paulding: D+17.06
Cobb: D+16.97
Forsyth: D+15.47
Newton: D+15.36
Houston: D+12.38
Clinch: R+10.91
Seminole: R+10.07
Echols: R+9.46
Warren: R+8.70
Brooks: R+8.50
Jasper: R+8.26
Jefferson: R+7.80
Hancock: R+7.51
Lincoln: R+7.44
Elbert: R+7.30

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::8b131441-52e1-4ad2-8e8c-48eaba1a12a2




Trend, 2016 Presidential - 2022 Senatorial Runoff (D+7.89):

Red counties = swung more D than the state as a whole
blue counties = swung less D than the state or swung R

D-trending counties comprise 63% of state population; R-trending counties comprise 37% of state pop.

[Adam Griffin]

I was on the GA SoS website looking at 2020 election results. It's lovely seeing the old Dem coalitions show up at the local level. So many uncontested Dem incumbents won local races across the Black Belt in toss-up and GOP leaning counties. The most eye popping Presidential to contested local deviations I saw: Jefferson County (Biden +7) re-elect their incumbent Democratic Coroner (D +43) and Sumter County (Biden +5) elect their first Black Sherriff (D +40).

If only things could be so fluid at the top of the ticket, but in those small communities reputation and relationships make a huge difference.

I'm curious how well things have held up over the past 8-10 years. I'm sure it's crumbled a lot since then, when local offices were still majority-Democratic throughout a very large segment of the southern half of the state. I mapped out the outcomes of every race in the 2012 & 2014 races, but I don't know when I'll again have the motivation to sort through 3000+ results:

Full-sized image

(Also, "CR" = Coroner; no idea how I never noticed I missed including that on the legend)



Simplified:

[Adam Griffin]

Probably the best county example from the ones above:

Glascock, 2012-14:
84.96% Romney, 13.17% Obama
79.97% Deal, 16.98% Carter

50% D, 50% R County Commission (2-2)
100% Countywide Offices Won by Ds (5-0)

[Adam Griffin]

Probably the best county example from the ones above:

Glascock, 2012-14:
84.96% Romney, 13.17% Obama
79.97% Deal, 16.98% Carter

50% D, 50% R County Commission (2-2)
100% Countywide Offices Won by Ds (5-0)

Found more from 2020:
Lanier County voted Trump +42, but was D +9 for Sheriff.

Thomas County, Trump +19, D +15 for Sheriff

Decatur County, Trump +17, D +27 for Sheriff

In 2016, Long County was Trump +31 but voted D +58 for Sheriff - the D Tax Commissioner and Coroner won uncontested. All the incumbents ran as Republicans in 2020 though.

Sheriff is a pretty easy office to be non partisan, and honestly conservative whether you're D or not, as most Black voters in these areas have conservative views on law enforcement as well so it's not alienating them when these candidates run as unabashedly pro-law enforcement so it makes sense and obviously you can't get much more non partisan than death re: coroner's offices, so it makes sense that those are the last vestiges of Democratic strength in rural GA... fascinating to see.

Another one that I'd argue is even more impressive given its location and demographic makeup: my home county (Whitfield).

Romney +45, D Sheriff +24 (a 69-point difference!). This one really crushed the local GOP's spirits for winning the race: Chitwood (elected in 1992) ran uncontested in both 2016 & 2020.



Coroners have also been a very easy position for Democrats to hold due to the non-partisan nature of them. As an example, a majority of the NW GA counties in 2012 re-elected Democratic Coroners (counties in bright blue); in addition, Catoosa at the time had an officially non-partisan Coroner who was a lifelong Dem at the time:



Overall, I believe somewhere close to a majority of counties had Democratic Coroners and Democratic Sheriffs as of the 2012-14 elections. (I had mapped this out somewhere, but can't find it as of now).

Here's what the Deep South looked like in terms of all offices from 2011-2014 (should be an animated GIF showing presidential results vs county-level outcomes):