Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Still of the belief that Abrams will finish 1-3 points behind Warnock in final margin. All the polls showing him doing 6-10 points better than her earlier this year were ridiculous. Nevertheless, there has been a consistent pattern in favor of incumbency in GA this cycle (Kemp and Warnock). With that being said...

Abrams should hope that Warnock wins by at least 2 points and clears runoff territory - because if GA suddenly has to have two consecutive runoffs (remember that state runoffs are in December, and federal runoffs are in January), the concept of voter confusion and fatigue comes into play. Furthermore, I'm betting that if Warnock wins by less than 2 points - runoff or no - Kemp scores a narrow majority in November just like he did in 2018. If Warnock can win by 3-4 points, then there's a decent chance the electorate is favorable enough to drag Abrams across the 50% threshold barely (or perhaps force an exclusive state-level runoff where she comes in first in November by a small margin).

Actually, one of the changes of that state voting law overhaul last year is that federal runoffs are now held in December, not January, so hypothetical Warnock/Walker and Kemp/Abrams runoffs would happen simultaneously.

In instances where no candidate receives a majority of the votes cast, a run-off primary, special primary runoff, run-off election, or special election runoff between the candidates receiving the two highest numbers of votes shall be held. Unless such date is postponed by a court order, such r̶u̶n̶-̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶,̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶,̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶-̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ runoff shall be held a̶s̶ ̶p̶r̶o̶v̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶s̶u̶b̶s̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶.̶ ̶

(̶2̶)̶ ̶I̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶j̶u̶n̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶T̶u̶e̶s̶d̶a̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶n̶i̶n̶t̶h̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶ ̶f̶o̶l̶l̶o̶w̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶s̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶.̶

(̶3̶)̶ ̶I̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶j̶u̶n̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶T̶u̶e̶s̶d̶a̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶n̶i̶n̶t̶h̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶ ̶f̶o̶l̶l̶o̶w̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶s̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶.̶

(̶4̶)̶ ̶I̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶j̶u̶n̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ on the twenty-eighth day after the day of holding the preceding general or special primary or general or special election.

Oh, Glorious News!

Yes, I'm still learning about all the smaller changes since I'm no longer an elected party official post-2021. Just figured out a day or two ago that they restricted ABM mailing to no earlier than October 10 for non-UOCAVA, as another example.

[Adam Griffin]

Publishing this here just because of some data-digging I did from the latest QPac GA-SEN poll thread: hoping not to lose it for comparison's sake in the coming weeks.

2020 RV Turnout
White    72.62%
Asian   64.63%
Black    59.97%
Latino    55.37%
Other    52.40%

TOTAL   65.74%

2018 RV Turnout
White   62.18%
Black   53.89%
Asian   44.42%
Latino   43.18%
Other   41.03%

TOTAL   56.36%

[Adam Griffin]

Personally, consider me skeptical about the Dobbs effect in GA compared to the ways that it is likely to impact other states. We could see a surge in presidential voters in GA who didn't vote in 2018 and wouldn't have in 2022 otherwise (particularly on the D side - which may be enough, mind you!), but combine this with AVR and you're not likely to see some huge shift in new registrations and the like that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

Also, obligatory "average D support for abortion in GA is lower than D support nationally (i.e. correlation to black vote share)" & "probably just about any defection-capable R voter already budged in 2018 and/or 2020; if Abrams was hanging onto all of them, Kemp would already be behind in polling in this celebrated post-Dobbs environment etc". In other words, don't project overwhelmingly white D electoral behavior onto substantially minority D voting behavior.

[Adam Griffin]

Good chance for the Forsyth County GOP to make fools of themselves this Sunday:

After the Forsyth County Democratic Committee announced plans to welcome Stacey Abrams to a Sunday night barbecue dinner, the local GOP announced plans for protests with loaded language.

“This is a call to save and protect our neighborhoods, our communities and our county! The moment is at hand,” said a Forsyth County GOP flyer. “The designers of destructive radicalism and socialism are crossing over our county border and into Cumming this Sunday.”

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-outrage-after-gop-warns-stacey-abrams-is-crossing-border-for-visit/TK4SRTLELRG3LAC7DL3K35LLRQ/

Read the flyer shown in the article; the GOP is planning to picket the route and entrance to the venue.

They backed off, which is for the best:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1570931142899167232

Not hard to understand why. The parallels between that and what happened in Forsyth County in 1987 would have been too strong to ignore - even for them:

[Adam Griffin]

Federal judge (Obama appointee) for the Northern District of Georgia upholds Georgia election laws on all counts in 2018-19 case brought by Fair Fight/Abrams org

A federal judge delivered a decisive ruling Friday against allies of Democrat Stacey Abrams in their 4-year-old voting rights lawsuit, upholding Georgia election laws on all counts in the case Fair Fight Action filed days after the 2018 election.

U.S. District Judge Steve Jones’ judgment concludes the ambitious case against Georgia’s voter registration and absentee ballot practices after a trial in which voters testified about problems at the polls but few of them were unable to cast a ballot.

“Although Georgia’s election system is not perfect, the challenged practices violate neither the Constitution nor the VRA (Voting Rights Act),” Jones wrote in a 288-page order.

The decision followed what is believed to be the longest voting rights trial in the history of the Northern District of Georgia, lasting 21 days with testimony from over 50 witnesses, wrote Jones, a nominee of President Barack Obama.

Jones ruled against Fair Fight on claims over Georgia’s “exact match” voter registration policy, absentee ballot cancellation practices and registration inaccuracies.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia is really special because I think it’s the first case where black voters can dominate a Dem primary but also Dems have the votes to realistically win statewide without extraordinary circumstances. Maryland comes close except you have tons of white liberals and Hispanics to the point where Black voters seem to be a large plurality in the dem primaries but not majority.

For what it's worth, this period is coming to an end in GA as well. As late as 2014, roughly two-thirds of Democratic GE support came from black voters. Fast forward to 2018-2020, and this figure is now 55% and 53%, respectively.

It is a necessity for victory anytime soon, quite frankly. Black primary composition does remain elevated, to be fair (60% in 2018 and 56% in 2020; largely because more white voters live in places where it strategically makes since to vote in GOP primaries, and Black voters disproportionately live in places where DEM primaries are crucial), but given that white voters have went from 20-22% D support to 28-30% D support in just 4 years - and still comprise the better part of 60% of the electorate - even the current Black share of the D electorate is still on track for a continued decline (and to be clear, this 15-point-plus margin shift among white voters is the only reason why GA flipped when it did).

Unless augmented white D support collapses in the next 2-4 years in GA, I wouldn't be surprised to see Black voters be a strong plurality (i.e. something like 49%) for GA Democrats as early as the 2024 General Election. Additionally, huge increases in Latino and Asian turnout have and will continue to reduce the share of the Democratic coalition that is Black (given I can't see the white share of the vote continuing to become statistically more D anytime soon, this will likely be the biggest contributor over the next decade).

It's basically impossible anywhere on a statewide level to have a supermajority of your Democratic coalition 1) be Black and 2) achieve statewide victory in a general election. The closest and most feasible option remains to this day Mississippi. Even in DC - where whites and Blacks vote D at comparable levels, which is a completely freakish anomaly - you're not capable of seeing a winning Democratic electorate be really any more than 55-57% Black.

[Adam Griffin]

Probably has something to do with the fact that since the appearance of Trump, GA rocketed the better part of 10 points to the left. He's not an asset everywhere, despite what some insist.

[Adam Griffin]

Early in-person voting begins today.  The AJC has an early vote tracker up at https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/.

Also, don't forget georgiavotes.com! First batch of early in-person (for today) should show up sometime after 9 PM ET this evening.

[Adam Griffin]

Early in-person voting begins today.  The AJC has an early vote tracker up at https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/.

Also, don't forget georgiavotes.com! First batch of early in-person (for today) should show up sometime after 9 PM ET this evening.

Thanks!  Are you going to provide periodic updates again this year of how things look compared to prior years?  (I hope so...)

I'll do my best (probably won't be daily, though).

Nevertheless, using GAVotes before it gets polluted by in-person voting updates tonight, here are the request breakdowns for mail (216,331 applications):

52.6% White
33.0% Black
9.5% Other/Unknown
3.2% Asian
1.7% Hispanic

58.8% Female
40.5% Male
0.7% Other/Unknown

63.0% 65+
16.8% 50-64
7.8% 18-29
6.1% 30-39
5.9% 40-49
0.5% Unknown

58.0% Voted Early in 2018
16.0% Voted on ED in 2018
27.2% DNV in 2018
(Does Not Add Up to 100)

Screenshot data:

[Adam Griffin]

For those of us who aren't well versed in Georgia tea-leaves-reading, is this good/bad for anyone?

At first glance, it doesn't seem particularly good/bad for either side in the aggregate. It's hard for me to reference my previous analyses in such detail, because I usually tracked returned ballots during the period prior to early in-person voting rather than applications. Previously, counties would start mailing out ballots in late-August/early-September, but GAGOP restricted this post-2020 to no earlier than October 10 this year, so there's fewer than 3,000 returned ballots as of now.

One thing is clear: there's not going to be anywhere close to the number of mail votes as there was in 2020. In fact, it's very close to the 2018 figure in terms of applications at this point. I assumed it would surpass 10% of all votes at minimum, but we're on track for something like the 6% we saw in 2018.

At any rate, given only around 5% of likely votes cast have been documented thus far - overwhelmingly so merely in mail ballot requests rather than returns - waiting for in-person votes to begin pouring in at 100k+ votes per day on average during the early in-person period is needed.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 1 AIP Voting: 127,685 voters cast ballots in-person today, and an additional 1,627 mail ballots were returned, for a grand total of 129,312 votes.

Breakdown of today's voters:

Code:

63920 	White	49.43%
49735 	Black	38.46%
1844	        Latino	1.43%
1792	        Asian	1.38%
12021	Other	9.30%

68030	Female	52.61%
60583	Male	        46.85%
699	        Other	0.54%

91067	Early Voters in 2018	70.40%
17838	ED Voters in 2018	13.79%
20450	Did Not Vote in 2018	15.81%

[Adam Griffin]

Day 2 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 156,078 voters cast ballots today, for a grand total of 291,740 votes.

Breakdown of today's voters:

Code:

89587 	White	55.15%
54746 	Black	33.70%
2072	        Latino	1.28%
1752	        Asian	1.08%
14271	Other	8.79%

85751	Female	52.79%
75708	Male	        46.61%
699	        Other	0.60%

[Adam Griffin]

Looking over the voting groups by age and method of 2018 voting (or lack thereof), this isn't such a rosy picture for Democrats as it might first appear.

Code: (All 2022 Votes Thus Far)

Voted Early in 2018
86.7%	50+
11.6%	30-49
1.7%	18-29

Voted ED in 2018
77.7%	50+
19.3%	30-49
3.0%	18-29

Did Not Vote in 2018
62.2%	50+
23.7%	30-49
15.0%	18-29

This definitely thus far is an old person's game: not sure how it looked in 2018 (or 2020), but seeing over 60% of the DNV-2018ers being 50+ seems...bad for Democrats - though it's still very early.


Looking by race, strong black numbers are definitely being inflated by older 2018 early voters showing up en masse early in the voting period (there was a similar pattern in 2018, but the black share was not this strong after the second day of EV then; it went from 34% black on early in-person voting Day 1 to 30% by the end of early voting). Between yesterday and today alone, the figure dropped from 38.5% (excl. unknowns) to 35.8%.

It's not that these numbers don't look good for Democrats currently, but the distribution by voting method/lack thereof from 2018 suggests the black figure will continue to collapse day-by-day due to earlier cannibalization of EV until it finds whatever equilibrium will be the case. We'll have a better idea by the weekend in all likelihood of where this will fall. No need to draw absolute conclusions yet, but I still found this interesting:

Code: (All 2022 Votes Thus Far)

Voted Early in 2018*
57.2%	White
40.9%	Black
1.9%	Other/Unknown

Voted ED in 2018*
62.2%	White
35.5%	Black
2.3%	Other

Did Not Vote in 2018*
58.3%	White
37.7%	Black
4.0%	Other

*Uses my personal formula for reassigning excess "unknown/other" voters into appropriate black/white categories; necessary due to initial lack of classification of newer GA RVs into respective racial/ethnic categories

[Adam Griffin]

Day 3 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 142,827 voters cast ballots yesterday, for a grand total of 434,567 votes.

Breakdown of Wednesday's voters:

Code:

81756	White	57.24%
44686	Black	31.29%
1865 	Latino	1.31%
1811	        Asian	1.27%
12709	Other	8.89%

77292	Female	54.01%
64752	Male	        45.25%	
1053	        Other	0.74%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

235263	White	54.14%
149167	Black	34.33%
5781	        Latino	1.33%
5355	        Asian	1.23%
39001	Other	8.97%

231073	Female	53.17%
201043	Male	        46.26%	
2451	        Other	0.57%

[Adam Griffin]

Day 4 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 139,031 voters cast ballots yesterday, for a grand total of 573,598 votes.

Breakdown of Thursday's voters:

Code:

81067	White	58.31%
41862	Black	30.11%
1878 	Latino	1.35%
1878         Asian	1.35%
12346	Other	8.88%

76381	Female	54.94%
61798	Male	        44.45%	
852           Other	0.61%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

316330	White	55.15%
191029	Black	33.30%
7659	        Latino	1.34%
7233	        Asian	1.26%
51347	Other	8.95%

307454	Female	53.60%
262841	Male	        45.82%	
3303	        Other	0.58%

[Adam Griffin]

Day 5 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 155,455 voters cast ballots Friday, for a grand total of 729,053 votes.

Breakdown of Friday's voters:

Code:

91151	White	58.63%
47343	Black	30.45%
2516 	Latino	1.62%
2490         Asian	1.61%
11955	Other	7.69%

87168	Female	55.20%
70542	Male	        44.67%	
196          Other         0.13%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

407481	White	55.89%
238372	Black	32.70%
10175        Latino	1.40%
9723	        Asian	1.33%
63302	Other	8.68%

394622	Female	54.13%
333383	Male	        45.73%	
1048	        Other	0.14%

[Adam Griffin]

After 5 days of EV, we seem to be somewhat stabilizing in terms of racial breakdowns - though there will continue to be flux over the next two weeks, which could amount to a substantial shift yet.

2022 Day 5 total EV compared to Day 5 total EV in:

2018, % of Electorate
+3 Black
-7 White*
+1 Female
-2 65 & up

2020, % of Electorate
+2 Black
-1 White
+2 Male
+17 65 & up

My estimates suggest the total EV at this point is around 4 points more Democratic than 2018 and 1 point more Republican than 2020 (margin) when taking an average of support levels for these four groups in 2018 & 2020.

And just for reference, the final EV figures (ABM + AIP) for the past three elections:

2021 Warnock   +13.76
2020 Biden       +5.73
2018 Abrams    +1.61

*I would take the white shift with a grain of salt, given the ever-increase of voters being labeled as "other/unknown" when first registering as opposed to their actual race or ethnicity. I imagine the real number when assigning everybody properly is probably 4-5 points less white than 2018 rather than 7-8


I expect today (Saturday) to see a surge in both youth and non-white participation. I would not be surprised to see black voters comprise 35% of today's electorate & the 65+ crowd comprising 25% or less. However, there may be some amelioration of this trend since Georgia now offers two statewide guaranteed Saturdays of early voting instead of the previous 1 Saturday (which would have been next week, at the end of Week 2).

In case you want to see the composition of the two main groups each day (both individually and cumulatively), here are some charts:

Individual Days:



Cumulative:

[Adam Griffin]

Day 6 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 87,831 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 816,884 votes.

Not quite as black as I thought was possible (but offset by Latino, Asian and "other" voters on the other end of things), and below 20% senior citizens (though still above 2018/20 levels). The explicitly-black share of total EVs actually still dropped by 0.1 points - though when sorting through the other/unknowns, I doubt it did in reality.

Breakdown of Saturday's voters:

Code:

46170	White	52.57%
28153	Black	32.05%
2260         Asian	2.57%
2067 	Latino	2.35%
9181 	Other	10.46%

48675	Female	55.42%
38909	Male	        44.30%	
247          Other         0.28%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

453651	White	55.53%
266525	Black	32.63%
12242       Latino	1.50%
11983	Asian	1.47%
72483	Other	8.87%

443297	Female	54.27%
372292	Male	        45.57%	
1295	        Other	0.16%

[Adam Griffin]

Just for posterity, here are the listed demographic breakdowns for 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2021 - along with my adjusted figures using available data to assign the SoS "Unknown/Other" categories into their respective groups. I've also added a link for this chart to the OP for future reference, in case any of us forget where this is in the future:

[Adam Griffin]

Day 7 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 20,744 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 837,628 votes.

Breakdown of Sunday's voters:

Code:

8586 	White	41.39%
8561 	Black	41.27%
739          Asian	        3.56%
509 	       Latino	2.45%
2349 	Other	11.33%

12026	Female	57.97%
8639 	Male	        41.65%	
79            Other         0.38%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

462237	White	55.18%
275086	Black	32.84%
12751       Latino	1.52%
12722	Asian	1.52%
74832	Other	8.94%

455323	Female	54.36%
380931	Male	        45.48%	
1374	        Other	0.16%

[Adam Griffin]

Adam, do you have the F/M breakdown from the last few cycles like your race breakdown chart above?

I'll have to go back and make that data at some point soon - should've done it while I was digging through the labyrinth that is the Georgia turnout file data.

Not necessarily what you're asking for, but I can tell you that as of Friday, 2022 EV was 1 point more female than 2018 EV and 2 points more male than 2020 EV (comparing both past cycles to their Day 5 EV totals).

[Adam Griffin]

Alright, here is the above chart with gender for each year added:

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a map showing turnout as of Sunday by county - as a share of "% of '18" as shown by Georgia Votes (still not entirely clear what this is a measurement of, as the numbers don't line up with total 2018 EV or 2018 EV on this comparable day). Colors are in gradients of 10 points (the lightest shade is <30% & the darkest shade is >100%).

DRA data available here.



I also thought it'd be interesting to see how each grouping of counties compares to their presidential margins in 2020. This is what it shows:



Other than Athens-Clarke & Richmond skewing the data by being sub-30%, there's a fairly clear trend (though Bibb and Dougherty being in the 40s at the moment breaks things a tad as well; the remainder of the category was Trump +39).

[Adam Griffin]

Day 8 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 148,968 voters cast ballots Monday, for a grand total of 986,596 votes.

Breakdown of Monday's voters:

Code:

89002 	White	59.75%
41947 	Black	28.16%
2276         Asian	1.53%
2220 	Latino	1.49%
13523 	Other	9.07%

82125	Female	55.13%
66527 	Male	        44.66%	
316          Other         0.21%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

551239	White	55.87%
317033	Black	32.13%
14971       Latino	1.52%
14998	Asian	1.52%
88355	Other	8.96%

537448	Female	54.47%
447458	Male	        45.35%	
1690	        Other	0.18%

[Adam Griffin]

Is this good or bad?

The worst day so far this year in terms of black EV share, but still better than 10 out of the 15 EV weekdays in 2018.

The days in 2018 that had statistically larger black turnout: the final 5 weekdays of EV.

The only other day that compares is Day 8 in 2018 (i.e. yesterday's analog), where in-person turnout was 28.4% black. That 2018 figure excludes returned ABMs, however, whereas my 2022 figure includes them - and in 2018, I'd wager the earlier-returned ABM electorate was whiter than the in-person and/or late-arriving ABM shares, meaning the total black share for that day might have still been slightly lower than yesterday's.