Describe a Trump/Abrams voter (user search)
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  Describe a Trump/Abrams voter (search mode)
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Author Topic: Describe a Trump/Abrams voter  (Read 1270 times)
Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: November 26, 2018, 02:12:12 PM »

From my initial observations (before SoS releases turnout figures by precinct), it looks like 1-2 out of every 100 Clinton voters went for Kemp, and 3-4 out of every 100 Trump voters went for Abrams.

As far as who the latter group tends to be (being a bit broader here):

Someone from the Atlanta suburbs, inner exurbs or coast who was a Republican that reluctantly voted for Trump but dislikes the President and left the party because of that.

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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2018, 03:41:29 PM »

^^^ When do you think Fayette will flip? Are more AAs moving there ala Henry or is it white voters jumping ship?

My gut says it's people moving into the county more so than a shift among existing residents. Until just a few years ago, there was this otherwise inexplicable racial firewall visible even at the precinct level that was obviously engineered through a variety of policies and perceptions; as soon as you crossed into Fayette from Fulton or Clayton, it just became very, very white. Given the natural growth of the metro and its distance from the epicenter, the fact that it remained so white and GOP was a real anomaly without it being intentional.

I imagine that's breaking down now, given that Fayette has swung Democratic in 2014, 2016 and 2018.

In 2008:

 
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