GA-UGA (AJC/WSB-TV): Abrams/Kemp tied at 45 (user search)
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  GA-UGA (AJC/WSB-TV): Abrams/Kemp tied at 45 (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA-UGA (AJC/WSB-TV): Abrams/Kemp tied at 45  (Read 3902 times)
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
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Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: September 07, 2018, 03:39:46 AM »

The fact that Georgia "undecideds" always seem to break Republican doesn't help matters either (shout out to Adam Griffin if he wants to go on a rant about this. Tongue)

Don't get me started on the suburbrons!

Anyway, this poll looks like what you'd expect with a couple of months remaining. GA Democrats who are somewhat competitive tend to have two periods where they peak/might lead in polling - one around the time school starts back and one a few weeks before the election (right before the undecideds start sticking the knife in). Right now, we're smack in the middle of those two periods. Most decent polls tend to account for new voters in their methodologies but if the share of the electorate that is usually first-time/irregular voters (10-15%) ends up being substantially higher, then it obviously wouldn't be reflective. As-is, though, this poll looks pretty average for Democrats in comparison to recent past cycles.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2018, 04:16:07 PM »

It wouldn't surprise me if Democrats did what they did between 1993-2005 after Wyche Fowler lost: simply change the runoff provision to 45% instead of 50% (and the GOP, if they ever were to come back into power, would flip it back to 50% like they did after winning majorities in the General Assembly).
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