Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

Can someone explain to me what these constitutional amendments / ballot referendums mean? I don't understand any of them

I will, in just a bit.

[Adam Griffin]

Can someone explain to me what these constitutional amendments / ballot referendums mean? I don't understand any of them.

I'm leaning towards voting "no" on all of them because I don't trust them.

Amendment 1: funnels existing tax dollars collected from outdoor sporting goods businesses into conservation efforts, protecting and maintaining parks, etc. This one is a pretty easy yes in my opinion.

Amendment 2: creates a statewide business court system to handle specific business-related cases. The thing is that this function already exists at the county level (at least, the ability for counties to create them; Gwinnett already has, for instance) and the GOP is just wanting to seed the state with a bunch of these (and the Governor is given sole ability to appoint each and every one of them). I voted hell no.

Amendment 3: allows different tax rates across counties for timber-related stuff. This was the one I could never really wrap my brain around, so I voted no (assuming it's just a conservative handout to businesses). You can read the Senate caucus' description of the amendment here.

Amendment 4: basically expands the ability of victims to get information and be heard in court proceedings. I didn't like the taste of this one, so I voted no. Again, more info can be found here.

Amendment 5: my understanding is that this allows counties with multiple school districts (or multiple counties) to hold ESPLOST referendums without needing the permission of all districts within the county; also guarantees that if a ESPLOST is approved, the funds are distributed to the school system(s) that voted for the ESPLOST rather than to all districts. I voted yes (being someone who lives in a county with multiple school districts).


Referendum 1: it's ATL-specific in terms of its current motivation, so it's not going to affect anybody outside of Fulton/Dekalb/ATL. However, I hate homestead exemptions and limitations on property taxes in general, so I voted no.

Referendum 2: provides a tax exemption for certain nonprofit-owned homes for the mentally disabled. Again, I assume this will be a corporate handout ("nonprofit-owned" is a slippery phrase), so I voted no.


Generally, the rule of thumb in GA on these kinds of things is, if you don't understand it or feel doubt about it, vote no - particularly on amendments (most of which can be passed through referendum or statute in the first place; the legislature is notoriously lacking personal responsibility in this regard).

[Adam Griffin]

I lied; I'm back!

That GeorgiaVotes page provides some relevant information along the same lines of what I was mining out of my county earlier today.

Just take a look at this:

• 24% of mail ballots cast thus far by whites come from people who did not vote at all in 2014
• For blacks, that figure is 56%
• For Latinos, 74%
• For everybody else, 69%

Guess we have a tentative (early) verdict as to whether or not early vote is being cannibalized.

[Adam Griffin]

I lied; I'm back!

That GeorgiaVotes page provides some relevant information along the same lines of what I was mining out of my county earlier today.

Just take a look at this:

• 24% of mail ballots cast thus far by whites come from people who did not vote at all in 2014
• For blacks, that figure is 56%
• For Latinos, 74%
• For everybody else, 69%

Guess we have a tentative (early) verdict as to whether or not early vote is being cannibalized.

I assume you live in gwinett? idk any other georgia areas with any hispanic strength

The figures you quoted of mine are for the state as a whole. I do live in the most Latino county (%), but it's not Gwinnett.

[Adam Griffin]

I posted some GA returns-by-county data on the early/absentee thread. It is long (listing numbers for every county), so rather than posting the list of all the data here as well, I will just link to it here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=301469.msg6447471#msg6447471

It looks like it partially duplicates some of what Fmr. Pres. Griff has already done, but also is a bit different. My observations were:

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Without diving into your figures too much (do you have a spreadsheet you can add to Google Drive, by the way?), I can take what basic info I already know and try to apply it here. Basically, I hypothesize we're looking at the same dynamic we see on election night in Georgia elections. Smaller, more rural and more Republican counties tend to get their vote counting started first, and tend to finish first; larger counties take more time to process everything.

I know based on my day-by-day counts for the past week or so that Fulton, Clayton and Dekalb started mailing the ballots out later than many other places (including other metro ATL counties). From the Secretary of State's figures, it'd appear that Bibb, Muscogee and Dougherty (Macon/Columbus/Albany) still have yet to mail out any real number of ballots; until yesterday, all 3 had mailed out just a few dozen ballots combined. There's also the broader precedent that counties with larger non-white populations tend to end up having lower ballot return rates in the end.

[Adam Griffin]

Today's data should be available in about 45 minutes. I'm not sure how quickly the Georgia Votes website is updating their figures, but if I don't see some statewide stats from them shortly after SoS publishing them, I'll be mining per usual.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ And for what it's worth, I just asked the creator of the Georgia Votes page if he could start organizing this by county. He said it's in the works (along with State House, State Senate and US House districts).

[Adam Griffin]

Mail ballot update (compared to yesterday). According to the SoS, 22,587 ballots have been returned (18,158 were returned as of yesterday; 4,429 returned today).

These counties comprise 67% of returned ballots (up from 66% yesterday); these counties comprised 63% of Georgia's 2010 population and 72%/75% of Obama/Clinton's statewide vote bloc:

Code:

2301	(1581) 	COBB
2233	(1618)	DEKALB
1816	(1235)	GWINNETT
1536	(1119)	FULTON
937	(811)	RICHMOND
617	(607)	CHATHAM	
577	(496)	CHEROKEE
551	(505)	PAULDING
526	(482)	FORSYTH
525	(404)	HOUSTON
502	(497)	HENRY
488	(455)	CLAYTON
380	(311)	COWETA
347	(295)	COLUMBIA
326	(239)	CLARKE
302	(194)	DOUGLAS
251	(208)	ROCKDALE
247	(209)	TROUP
222	(216)	LOWNDES
185	(157)	FLOYD
145	(145)	BIBB
106	(94)	        WHITFIELD
25	(23)	        HALL
16	(14)	        MUSCOGEE
0	(0)	        DOUGHERTY

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Vote, both white and black share of electorate declined slightly compared to yesterday.

(I'm switching from McDonald's numbers to his, which explains why the format looks different from previous days' updates)

Code:

White	9825	45.1% (-0.1)
Black	9078	41.6% (-0.5)
Latino	478	2.2%  (+0.2)
Asian	624	2.9%  (+0.3)
Other	1794	8.2%  (+0.1)

Female	12663	58.1% (+0.2)
Male		8827 	40.5% (-0.3)
Unknown	309	        1.4%   (+0.1)

18-29	 1191	5.5%   (+0.3)
30-39	 1080	5.0%   (+0.1)
40-49	1553	        7.1%   (+0.2)
50-64	4782	        21.9% (+0.7)
65+        12916         59.3% (-1.3)
Unknown	  277	        1.3%   (+0.1)

[Adam Griffin]

Here's another way to look at the current VBM stats: as a share of all 2014 VBM ballots cast. I'm seeing some patterns here; do you?

% of VBM Returned (Share of 2014), As of October 3, 2018

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Vote, racial shares of the electorate remain largely unchanged from yesterday. An additional 3,128 valid votes were received compared to yesterday; today's accepted ballot total (returned minus rejected) stands at 25,348 votes.

Code:

White	11456	45.2% (+0.1)
Black	10542	41.6% (0.0)
Latino	551	         2.2%  (0.0)
Asian	702	         2.8%  (-0.1)
Other	2097	         8.3%  (+0.1)

Female	14788	58.3% (+0.2)
Male		10191 	40.2% (-0.3)
Unknown	369	        1.5%   (+0.1)

18-29	 1430	5.6%   (+0.1)
30-39	 1245	4.9%   (-0.1)
40-49	 1804	7.1%   (0.0)
50-64	 5561	21.9%  (0.0)
65+         14976        59.1%  (-0.2)
Unknown	  332	        1.3%   (0.0)

[Adam Griffin]

Here are the VBM totals as of yesterday (Thursday) for every county, sorted by number of raw ballots returned:

[Adam Griffin]

And an update showing the percentage of mail ballots returned relative to the total VBM stats in 2014 for each county.

% of VBM Returned (Share of 2014), As of October 4, 2018

Statewide total for 10/4: 24.61%




Here's the same map, but showing which counties have a higher returned ballot percentage (as a share of 2014) than the state as a whole, and which have a lower returned percentage. Of course, there are a couple of dozen counties that haven't received any ballots yet (likely because they haven't been mailed) or have just started receiving in the past day or two.

It's also worth noting that between the two groups (green/above avg & red/below avg), there isn't a real meaningful difference in the 2016 results as of right now: the green counties combined were won by Trump by around 4.5 points; the red by 5.5 points.

There does, however, appear to be some correlation between a county's whiteness and whether it has a high return rate relative to 2014 at this point (which may indicate success by Democrats in the VBM campaign - or might just be indicative of whiter counties getting a later start at mailing out ballots). On the other hand, there are several urban clusters that got a late start or have yet to even mail them out (Fulton; Bibb, Muscogee, Dougherty).

(Just to illustrate how powerful the northern burbs are, if you take Bartow, Cherokee and Forsyth out of the green group, Clinton won it by a couple of thousand votes)

% of VBM Returned (Above/Below Statewide Avg), As of October 4, 2018

Statewide total for 10/4: 24.61%

[Adam Griffin]

Pretty big news - we've had "top-ticket" downballot candidates not raise a million in recent cycles. She spoke at our dinner and she gives one hell of a stump speech!

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[Adam Griffin]

Kemp raised $12 million, Abrams $10.2 million July 1-September 30.

For the final stretch, Kemp has $6.6 million COH, Abrams has $4.9 million

Link

It's looking increasingly possible that Kemp and/or Abrams can beat the record GA gubernatorial fundraising haul by Election Day (Roy Barnes in 2002; ~$20m). As it stands, Kemp has raised $16.9m and Abrams $16.2m.

Of course, ask Barnes how well that worked out for him - he outraised his opponents in both 2002 and 2010.

[Adam Griffin]

What is it that southern PSC’s do, anyways? They seem to be the only states that have them

They essentially oversee regulations, consumer protections and procedures relating to telecommunications and energy companies. It's sort of like a combination of a state-level FCC & DoE. Probably the best example in your state would be the WUTC, except here, they are elected instead of appointed.

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Vote, racial shares of the electorate remain largely unchanged from yesterday. An additional 3,415 valid votes were received compared to yesterday; today's accepted ballot total (returned minus rejected) stands at 28,997 votes.

Code:

White	13075	45.1% (-0.1)
Black	12038	41.5% (-0.1)
Latino	647           2.2%  (0.0)
Asian	810	         2.8%  (0.0)
Other	2427	         8.4%  (+0.1)

Female	16926	58.4% (+0.1)
Male		11633 	40.1% (-0.1)
Unknown	438	        1.5%   (0.0)

18-29	 1708	5.9%   (+0.3)
30-39	 1462	5.0%   (+0.1)
40-49	 2098	7.2%   (+0.1)
50-64	 6370	22.0%  (+0.1)
65+         16963        58.5%  (-0.6)
Unknown	  396	        1.4%   (+0.1)

[Adam Griffin]

One thing that is really interesting about the early voting so far is the gender gap (not in support, but in turnout).

Women are about 51% of the overall population (probably about the same in GA), but so far 58.4% of voters in GA are women, 40.1% are men, and 1.5% are unknown. That is a 1.45 to 1 ratio!!!

For mail ballots, that probably skews somewhat more female than other votes and early votes are likely to, because it (I presume) skews old, and women have longer average life expectancy than men.

But even with that, it is an incredible turnout gap by sex. I do not expect it to hold at that sort of absurd ratio, but the fact that it is so high now does suggest that by the time everyone votes, I would bet the sex composition of the electorate will probably settle at an unusually high ratio of women to men compared to previous elections.

And... if there is a high gender gap in vote preference combined with a high gender gap in turnout, your imagination can fill in the rest.


Just to put some more context on that, this is the sort of gender gap in composition of the electorate that you might expect from a Democratic primary in the South, not a General election.

I’d assume the gender gap comes from black people being the plurality atm

What's really interesting is that the total VBM gender balance basically reflects the usual Democratic gender balance in Georgia; usually 58% or so of the Democratic GA bloc is female. This is, as you've already pointed out, due to the high incarceration and disenfranchisement rates of black males in GA (1 in 4, to be precise; 1 in 8 black females fall into the same category). Among black voters as a whole, the share who are female usually fall in the 60-65% range depending on county.

The thing is, to have female numbers overall that are this high, there has to be higher than average female participation across the board (among independents, white Democrats, non-white Democrats, and even Republicans)...unless you assume black females are comprising an insane share of the black electorate not seen before in GA.

Basically, if you assume 65% of the black electorate is female, then 53% of non-black voters have to be female at present. That's a large number/assumption for the black electorate; if you lower the former figure, then the latter figure obviously has to be even higher.

[Adam Griffin]

Deal and Perdue (lol @ Mr Racial Gaffe Master standing a chance there now) won Gwinnett by 8 in ‘14. Isakson won it by not quite 4 in ‘16 while Clinton won it by about 6. Could Abrams get it to over 5? Especially with her Latino / Asian outreach? Either way, I see Isakson being the last R to win there for a long time. Especially with Kemp, Trump , and Perdue being on the ticket over the next cycle.

Unless her performance in rural GA as a whole is unprecedentedly strong, she'll likely need to win Gwinnett by double-digits (or damn near it) to have a chance at winning a majority.

See my benchmarks:

Margin by County
Swing by County

[Adam Griffin]

Deal and Perdue (lol @ Mr Racial Gaffe Master standing a chance there now) won Gwinnett by 8 in ‘14. Isakson won it by not quite 4 in ‘16 while Clinton won it by about 6. Could Abrams get it to over 5? Especially with her Latino / Asian outreach? Either way, I see Isakson being the last R to win there for a long time. Especially with Kemp, Trump , and Perdue being on the ticket over the next cycle.

Unless her performance in rural GA as a whole is unprecedentedly strong, she'll likely need to win Gwinnett by double-digits (or damn near it) to have a chance at winning a majority.

See my benchmarks:

Margin by County
Swing by County

Could you add these to the main post? Other users and myself may be looking for them when the day of reckoning is upon us.

Sure thing - added.

[Adam Griffin]

Good to see some persuasion strategy utilized here. I'd wager the reason nobody's ever ran an ad on this channel/for this game before is because even persuasion-minded Democratic campaigns of the past considered baseball watchers too old and too white to be reasoned with, lol.


And BTW, I saw this ad on TV during primetime in the Chattanooga media market for the first time a few days ago. Prior to that, there had been no Abrams ads running here in the general. I guess this is the "white ad" that they're running to pitch to very conservative/white audiences.

[Adam Griffin]

So glad they finally added the county breakdowns! There are a few errors in his data (for example, I noticed there are no votes recorded for Muscogee, when in fact, there are a handful) and the figures may be behind by a day or so, but nevertheless, great.

I've mapped out the percentages for each county in terms of how much higher or lower they are when compared to 2014. Click on the link below to explore each county's figures (click on a county for info). It's kind of hard to pick a gradient that shows the distinction between counties since the variance is so massive, but alas:

VBM By County (% Higher/Lower Than 2014) - As Of 10/8



And here's a list of the county figures in simple format:

Code:

COUNTY		% Higher/Lower Than 2014
Macon		2166.7
Hancock		1900
Jackson		1472.7
Early		        1342.9
Johnson		1225
Clay		        1200
Baker		1100
Thomas		727.3
Jefferson		641.7
Pulaski		520
Decatur		519
Clayton		518.7
Lowndes		500
Whitfield		468.2
Calhoun		460
Franklin		360
Camden		347.8
Lamar		335.3
Upson		320.7
Butts		        291.3
Rockdale		287.8
Henry		281.3
Douglas		272
Meriwether	270
Houston		267.6
Cobb		        264.2
Taliaferro		250
Laurens		248.6
Crawford		242.9
Elbert		238.3
Bartow		231.4
Spalding		228.8
Crisp		        222.7
Paulding		218.8
Ben Hill		215.4
Washington       214.3
Lee		        200
Emanuel		196
Forsyth		194.4
Mitchell		186.2
DeKalb		185.6
Colquitt		182.6
Barrow		182.5
Dodge		182.4
Toombs		182.4
Newton		178
Gwinnett		174.6
Oconee		173.5
Cherokee		168.8
Wilkes		168.4
Screven		166.7
Fulton		165.4
Glascock		160
Monroe		160
Rabun		159.2
Effingham		157.8
Bulloch		156.9
Union		153.6
Grady		150
Randolph		149
Bacon		146.2
Baldwin		139.4
Clarke		136.9
Chatham		136.4
Cook		        135.5
Harris		134
Richmond		128.7
Irwin		        120
Lincoln		111.1
Appling		110.6
Jasper		110
Tift		        107.3
Bryan		105.3
Wilkinson		104
Echols		100
Talbot		100
Walker		100
Carroll		97.8
Tattnall		97.4
Catoosa		97.2
Floyd		92.4
Warren		91.7
Walton		89.8
Evans		89.5
Hart		        89.3
Lanier		87.5
Glynn		81.1
Morgan		79.4
Pierce		76.5
Fannin		76.3
Berrien		73
Wilcox		71
Gordon		70.9
Heard		67.4
Dawson		65.9
Polk		        58.7
Columbia		50
Oglethorpe	50
Banks		47.6
Haralson		47.1
Coweta		46.4
Stephens		45.1
Gilmer		42.3
Charlton		41.7
Miller		40
Sumter		38.5
McIntosh		38
Lumpkin		37.8
Schley		33.3
Bleckley		31.9
Quitman		28.6
Troup		26.8
Brooks		25.4
Brantley		23.1
Montgomery	23.1
Towns		22.2
Terrell		19.3
Dade		        16.7
McDuffie		7.2
Jones		6.9
Putnam		1.6
Marion		-3.4
Burke		-7.1
Madison		-7.2
Bibb		        -10.9
Worth		-12
Twiggs		-12.1
Clinch		-12.5
Greene		-18.4
Jeff Davis		-23.1
Fayette		-26.2
Pike		        -30.4
Dooly		-33.3
Jenkins		-33.3
Chattooga		-35.5
White		-40.5
Stewart		-50
Seminole		-53.8
Hall		        -54.3
Taylor		-55.6
Murray		-74.2
Peach		-87.5
Ware		        -90.8
Wheeler		-97.2
Wayne		-98
Atkinson		-100
Candler		-100
Chattahoochee	-100
Coffee		-100
Dougherty		-100
Habersham	-100
Liberty		-100
Long		        -100
Muscogee		-100
Pickens		-100
Telfair		-100
Treutlen		-100
Turner		-100
Webster		-100

[Adam Griffin]

And to make it a bit simpler to look at, here are the VBM percentage shifts between 2014 and 2018 only for counties with more than 50,000 people:

Code:

COUNTY	% Higher/Lower Than 2014
Jackson	1472.7
Clayton	518.7
Lowndes	500
Whitfield	468.2
Camden	347.8
Rockdale	287.8
Henry	281.3
Douglas	272
Houston	267.6
Cobb	        264.2
Bartow	231.4
Spalding	228.8
Paulding	218.8
Forsyth	194.4
DeKalb	185.6
Barrow	182.5
Newton	178
Gwinnett	174.6
Cherokee	168.8
Fulton	165.4
Effingham	157.8
Bulloch	156.9
Clarke	136.9
Chatham	136.4
Richmond	128.7
Walker	100
Carroll	97.8
Catoosa	97.2
Floyd	92.4
Walton	89.8
Glynn	81.1
Gordon	70.9
Columbia	50
Coweta	46.4
Troup	26.8
------------------
Bibb	        -10.9
Fayette	-26.2
Hall	        -54.3
Muscogee	-100
Dougherty	-100
Liberty	-100

[Adam Griffin]

And to make it a bit simpler to look at, here are the VBM percentage shifts between 2014 and 2018 only for counties with more than 50,000 people:

Code:

COUNTY	% Higher/Lower Than 2014
Jackson	1472.7
Clayton	518.7
Lowndes	500
Whitfield	468.2
Camden	347.8
Rockdale	287.8
Henry	281.3
Douglas	272
Houston	267.6
Cobb	        264.2
Bartow	231.4
Spalding	228.8
Paulding	218.8
Forsyth	194.4
DeKalb	185.6
Barrow	182.5
Newton	178
Gwinnett	174.6
Cherokee	168.8
Fulton	165.4
Effingham	157.8
Bulloch	156.9
Clarke	136.9
Chatham	136.4
Richmond	128.7
Walker	100
Carroll	97.8
Catoosa	97.2
Floyd	92.4
Walton	89.8
Glynn	81.1
Gordon	70.9
Columbia	50
Coweta	46.4
Troup	26.8
------------------
Bibb	        -10.9
Fayette	-26.2
Hall	        -54.3
Muscogee	-100
Dougherty	-100
Liberty	-100

What's up in Jackson County?  Did it have a very low prior to cause that ridiculous spike?

Apparently only around 15 people had voted by mail at this point in Jackson in 2014 (compared to 174 as of today).

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Vote, racial shares of the electorate shifted in favor of non-white gains over the weekend. An additional 2,733 valid votes were received compared to yesterday (which seems pretty low for a 3-day period, but I'm not sure if a lot of the county boards are closed today for "state holiday"; today's accepted ballot total (returned minus rejected) stands at 31,730 votes.

Code:

White	14108	44.5% (-0.6)
Black	13305	41.9% (+0.4)
Latino	700           2.2%  (0.0)
Asian	924	         2.9%  (+0.1)
Other	2693	         8.5%  (+0.1)

Female	18497	58.4% (-0.1)
Male		12740 	40.2% (+0.1)
Unknown	493	        1.6%   (+0.1)

18-29	 1886	5.9%   (0.0)
30-39	 1601	5.0%   (0.0)
40-49	 2347	7.4%   (+0.2)
50-64	 7020	22.1%  (+0.1)
65+         18430        58.1%  (-0.4)
Unknown	  446	        1.4%   (0.0)