MS Special Election/Mike Espy (D) internal: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) down by 2

[Adam Griffin]

Just another reminder that folks here were seriously arguing that Espy should drop out because he's black.

I mean he shouldn't, but let's not kid ourselves either, if Doug Jones was black, Roy Moore would have won.

I mean, that just blatantly forgets how Jones won in the first place. Jones only won 30% of the white vote, which is rather average for Democrats. What was the difference was the fact that Jones won the Black Vote by historic margins, as much as Obama did. And they turned out. If Jones were black, its possible that more Black Dems would have turned out, and he likely still would have won.

30% of the white vote in AL was astounding: definitely not average. In essence, doubled (or even tripled, depending on who you believe) compared to recent federal elections.

Too many people learned the wrong lessons from that race. The accurate lesson is that for victory in most of the South, you need a strong multi-racial coalition (just like the ones that existed in a slightly different composition in the 1990s) for Democrats to win. Comparing the turnout and support levels from 2012 & 2016 to the special in 2017 for AL and overlooking the very tiny non-black, non-white vote for convenience's sake*, the math is very clear: the shift between those elections margin-wise was comprised of 60% white shift (18 points in the margin), 40% black shift (12 points in the margin). Furthermore, if you want to break down the white category into rural and urban alongside the black category, then it was basically 20/40/40, respectively.

Without any of the three parts of this coalition's massive overperformance, Jones would have lost. This should be obvious: the support levels for Obama in 2008 among AL blacks were almost certainly at the level Jones enjoyed, and even if you had bumped up black turnout to 2017 levels, he would have lost the state by 15 points.

*I would say even they - a fourth part of the coalition - could have cost Jones the election without increased turnout and support given the margin


At any rate, the same dynamic will need to play out in MS for Espy to have a shot. A win in MS is less reliant on white vote but nevertheless an equally steep challenge (more black voters, but a lower white Dem support baseline from which to start).

[Adam Griffin]

If this is in any way true, it's disturbing how female republican candidates are running way behind expected benchmarks in red states, against male democrats. Hyde-Smith, Blackburn, Noem - this is a bit of a depressing pattern.

I know! Isn't it glorious?