State Reporting Patterns

[Adam Griffin]

GA & VA both report heavily Republican during the first two hours, with Democratic votes pouring in after that.

With GA specifically, it doesn't help that the most Democratic contiguous 5% of the state (ATL proper) doesn't close its polls until one hour after the rest of the state. Likewise, given the fact that Fulton County is both the most populous, has the most precincts, is one of the most Democratic and geographically is the largest, it takes quite a bit of time for all of those precincts to close up shop and physically transport all ballots and equipment back to the central office.

[Adam Griffin]

Dramatic Democratic bias in early returns: PA, IL, OH, AL
Dramatic Republican bias: VA, GA, CA, NY

Possible Dem bias: MI, AZ, TX, NC, FL (due to central time in Panhandle)
Possible Rep bias: NY, MD, AK, KY

Pretty sure AL returned the Dem vote last in 2017.

Also doesn't Wayne report last in MI?

[Adam Griffin]

Dramatic Democratic bias in early returns: PA, IL, OH, AL
Dramatic Republican bias: VA, GA, CA, NY

Possible Dem bias: MI, AZ, TX, NC, FL (due to central time in Panhandle)
Possible Rep bias: NY, MD, AK, KY

Pretty sure AL returned the Dem vote last in 2017.

Also doesn't Wayne report last in MI?

You're reading that wrong because the lines flipped at the last moment. The solid line is the NYT estimate, look at the confidence intervals. The DOTTED line is the actual returns.

I'm aware of that; I recall Moore being in the lead throughout most of the night and the tracker saying Jones was going to win throughout, and thinking how silly it seemed at the time. I just posted it because it's one of the few recent statewide elections for which we have a tracking of the votes as they reported.