Will Elliott County flip back to the democrats?

[Adam Griffin]

There's practically no (may not actually be any) example of a county with these cultural and political dynamics ever reversing its trend in absolutes outside of a broader/national realignment. The fact that Elliott has swung 84 points in 12 years should tell you all you need to know.

Maybe if the county had went from its 2012 performance to a mirror-reverse result in 2016, you could argue that a flip was possible - but not only is that not going to happen, but it's likely the county doesn't even manage to swing Democratic in 2020.

While a huge chunk of the New Deal-influenced coalition has certainly passed on over the past 15 years, the roots obviously run deep here (i.e. it wasn't just a bunch of 90 year-olds keeping the county Democratic). In knowing that, you have to accept that there was still a significant chunk of these die-hard yellow-dogs who voted for Clinton in 2016 who will not be around in three years' time.