Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,092
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: February 11, 2018, 06:08:18 AM » |
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In Atlas definitions, swing is the change in D-R margin in an area relative to the last election; trend is difference between the swing of said area and the swing of the nation.
Example: ABC County voted for Romney by 10 in 2012 and for Trump by 5 in 2016. ABC County swung 5 points to Clinton.
However, the nation as a whole voted for Obama by 4 in 2012 and for Clinton by 2 in 2016. The nation swung 2 points to Trump.
Since the nation swung 2 points to Trump and ABC County swung 5 points to Clinton, the trend of ABC County would be 7 points in favor of Clinton: the difference between the two shifts.
It's worth noting that "trend" in this context can be used to apply to statewide contests and in presidential elections at the state level as well; one might compare the swing of a county in a gubernatorial election to the swing of the state overall, or might even compare the swing of a congressional district to that of a state in a presidential contest. However, the original definition above this paragraph is the official Atlas definition of trend.
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