Perhaps a dumb way to look at it, but if you take these intensity measurements for the two parties and overlap it with the
most recent partisan self-identification figures, it's a
60/
40 split in favor of Democrats - and that doesn't take into account any breaking of enthusiastic independents to the Dems.
However, another way to look at it is to use
Gallup's three-way party affiliation figures and account for "independents" who are clear leaners; among those who are enthusiastic, it's a
51-
33 lead in favor of Dems. Considering that these "enthusiastic" voters are 52% of RVs, that's a significant majority of your midterm voters with a near 20-point lean in favor of Dems. I just wish we had more up-to-date figures for this data-set (last one Gallup did w/ leaners pushed was in December).
