I'll predict a few counties that will be interesting to watch the margins.
Jefferson County
Jones: 65%
Moore: 32%
Montgomery County
Jones: 72%
Moore: 26%
Mobile County
Jones: 57%
Moore: 40%
Madison County
Jones: 55%
Moore: 41%
Shelby County
Moore: 60%
Jones: 37%
Baldwin County
Moore: 63%
Jones: 34%
Lee County
Jones: 49%
Moore: 48%
Tuscaloosa County
Jones: 56%
Moore: 39%
As far as compared to a race in Alabama in the past, I expect we'll see some of the accelerated trends from the 2016 election, like with the Virginia gubernatorial race. The whole state will obviously swing Democratic but metropolitan areas should be the strongest and rural areas with low incomes and educational levels should be least. Of course, it's Alabama, so the effect won't be that strong. I could be wrong though and this might be more like Louisiana 2015. There's no way to be sure.
Those numbers seem like a comfortable Jones victory, provided the more rural areas have a decent swing towards Jones too. We'll see.
This is closer to a tie/bare Jones win if we assume the rest of the state is swinging by margins comparable to 2012 Supreme Court...perhaps with the exception of Birmingham (I'd put it at 60% or so in a tied race in such a scenario)
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