MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Adam Griffin]

Non-partisan ...?

Meaning there are no official nominees and all candidates are listed without party affiliation. Kind of like Mayoral elections in Chicago, I believe.

Still an oxymoron.

Why would candidates be listed without party affiliation in a US Senate race? Louisiana, California, and Georgia (only for special elections) have nonpartisan primaries with affiliation on listed on the ballot.

It's a Southern thing. Georgia did not have the partisan affiliation as an option in state legislative special elections (which I believe is the only instance in which this scenario applies in GA) until very recently; I believe it was a GOP change.

[Adam Griffin]

That's because establishment GOP doesn't have many options here.

What a perfect combination of images on that article!

[Adam Griffin]

In the poll, Espy carried 18 percent of white voters; 26 percent of white voters under age 35.

That's right on the line of a majority in a two-way race with decent black turnout, if those figures hold. Even in a three-way, he would have a shot of hitting 50 if black voters support him 95-5 and he gets 20% of the white vote.

This will need the AL touch, though. The black vote has to basically be 40% of the electorate for this to happen.

[Adam Griffin]

From Republicans, definitely. I'm just not sure how many Democratic groups will want to throw money into a Senate race in Mississippi. Assuming the Republican is CHS, I don't think most Democratic groups would feel spending money in Mississippi would have any effect on the chances of flipping the seat in the runoff.

It won't necessarily matter if Democratic groups are willing to spend: Democratic voters will - especially if the GOP retains control of the Senate or it's a tie-breaking situation. With literally nobody else left on the ballot to contribute to post-Nov 7, individual contributions would come pouring into MS. Perhaps the one exception here is if GA-GOV goes to a runoff, but even then, it's only 2 races out of dozens of high-profile ones ongoing currently. I could easily see it being an Alabama special redux in terms of money raised/spent.

[Adam Griffin]

All the evidence post-2016 points to mediocre-to-abysmal black turnout, whether we look at special elections or this month's general election. The one exception is AL-Sen, which had months of statewide organizing and millions of dollars pumped into it to make such a thing happen (and even then, 60% of the swing from Clinton's margin of loss to Jones' margin of victory was on the backs of white voters).

Unless there is an unprecedented stealth op being conducted by national Democratic orgs in the state, people with hope in this are setting themselves up for a massive letdown. Don't forget that Democrats also retook the House, which undoubtedly will have repercussions on Democratic enthusiasm (look at the 2008 GA runoff for evidence of how quickly that enthusiasm dissipated post-GE). Losing by 15 would be a good result at this point.

[Adam Griffin]

All the evidence post-2016 points to mediocre-to-abysmal black turnout, whether we look at special elections or this month's general election. The one exception is AL-Sen, which had months of statewide organizing and millions of dollars pumped into it to make such a thing happen (and even then, 60% of the swing from Clinton's margin of loss to Jones' margin of victory was on the backs of white voters).

Unless there is an unprecedented stealth op being conducted by national Democratic orgs in the state, people with hope in this are setting themselves up for a massive letdown. Don't forget that Democrats also retook the House, which undoubtedly will have repercussions on Democratic enthusiasm (look at the 2008 GA runoff for evidence of how quickly that enthusiasm dissipated post-GE). Losing by 15 would be a good result at this point.

Is there even any dense majority black areas to organize in other than Jackson? I just know there's no field operation that can be effective in the Mississippi Delta, not only because the area is so rural, but the people there are living in crippling poverty and those communities need more than a black candidate being shoved in their face to go vote. Espy is pretty underwhelming. He may lose worse than the 12 points I initially predicted.

Yeah, MS is probably the toughest area to organize in this regard (some parts of SC might be comparable). Obama actually lost "Rural Mississippi" by less than "Metro Mississippi" in 2012 (and Clinton only did 1 point worse in the rural portions in 2016 than in the metro portions). MS is 1 of 7 states where the rural counties tend to be more Democratic than the remainder of the state.

You'd need focus on small town field ops for sure (which ideally would require a robust county party structure that likely doesn't exist). Approximately half of black voting age Mississippians live in the blue areas:



Nevertheless, there was a meaningful impact in AL in the black rural areas as well, so it's not impossible (but difficult). It's a shame the party wasn't prepared for this and didn't have a framework in place pre-GE to attempt to go after it in the final month. Even if resources couldn't be spent pre-GE there, it's not as if we didn't know it was going to a runoff.

[Adam Griffin]

I just really wish Atlas would stop pretending that there is any thought process in minds of voters when they go to the ballot box.

Observing the ever-decreasong percentage of split-ticket voters in US, i began to think, that 95% of US voters are robots. Of one of two types: "Democratic robots" (voting straight Democratic ticket) and "Republican robots" (always voting Republican ticket). And remaining 5% - who bother to think himself...

And about 95% of the remaining 5% "think" about things like which candidate they'd like to have a beer with, who makes them feel better/safer, who seems more "folksy" and "in touch", or possibly who's better at positioning themselves as a "***moderate™***". In other words, those voters are hardly better or more "intelligent" than partisans.

I'm always reminded of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAG37Kw1-aw

[Adam Griffin]

The ideal turnout for Epsy really falls into a small sweet spot of sorts - even more so than throughout the South in general. Too low and that means black voters have just sat the election out; too high and the electorate ends up resembling the state at-large.

I can't be for sure - it's not necessarily fixed - but assuming there's any legit wind at his back right now, the sweet spot is probably around 40% plus or minus a couple of points (~750k voters).

[Adam Griffin]

Palmer report on twitter

Not sure if legit or not

I'm not seeing this anythwere, you have a link?

Should probably just ignore him - he makes up or pulls random Twitter comments that inevitably end up being wrong in just about every election.

[Adam Griffin]

What would a Espy 50.3-49.7 map look like?

Borrowed from AAD

MS 11/6/18 Performance by County

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[Adam Griffin]

Just in case anybody needs it:

November 2016 General D/R Percentages by County

[Adam Griffin]

Remember everybody: MS does have a D counting bias to some degree for the same reason GA & VA have R counting biases. In MS, rural areas tend to be more D than metro areas, and they disproportionately begin coming in first.

However, if there's a genuine swing among the relatively tiny suburban segments of the state, then the bias may not be as big as usual.

[Adam Griffin]

CHS up by 9.4 with 6% in.

[Adam Griffin]

DeSoto now at 56-44 with 75% reporting.

[Adam Griffin]

espy only losing by 12 in desoto? i mean not all precincts have reported but it's a county that usually votes 30+ points republican

The GOP won it 65-35 on November 6th.

[Adam Griffin]

CHS down to a 6-point lead with 10% reporting.

[Adam Griffin]

Half of Coahoma is in: Espy winning 89-11 (was 70-30 on 11/6)

Half of Hancock is in: CHS winning 60-40 (was 74-26 on 11/6)

[Adam Griffin]

CHS leading by 5.8 with 12% reporting.

[Adam Griffin]

And CHS resurges to a 8.8 point lead, with 13% reporting. Guessing that was Lawrence County...?

[Adam Griffin]

Margins keep shifting while precincts reporting aren't changing: guessing this is absentee vote causing this?

[Adam Griffin]

Three more precincts in DeSoto dumped, moving CHS' margin to 57-43. Only 6 more there to go.

[Adam Griffin]

CHS has 71% in Yahoo County, which voted for Hillary. This is over.

Thing is, MS is heavily segregated, even by Southron standards. I'll admit all of this partial county analysis is pretty much BS: a lot of places are dumping a lot of all-white or all-black precincts right now. A full picture won't be obvious at the county level for awhile.

[Adam Griffin]

Epsy just took the lead in Yazoo, 51-49 (two-thirds reporting).

[Adam Griffin]

More from Silver:

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Seems like the more relevant comparison would be the D total vote (both Espy and Bartee), wouldn't it?

Is that saying he needs to overperform an an additional 9.4 points, or by around 1 point?

[Adam Griffin]

80% of Hancock is in: CHS is winning 70-30 (was 74-26 on 11/6).