Cruz would have pulled a Reverse Hillary, if anything. He would definitely have done better in the national PV and maybe even won it, but there's no way he would've picked up PA, MI & WI. Overall turnout would have been much lower; even though Cruz wouldn't have carried all of those blue-collar first-time and/or white working class Dems, he would have made them up by retaining support in suburbia. Clinton, on the other hand, would've had the same problems she had with the base and that first-time Latino voter turnout and support would've been a lot weaker due to it not being Trump on the ballot.
His margins would have been much better than Trump's in most suburban areas and that would have led to Obama '12-like margins for him in states like GA and TX. Of course, this would mean that it would have been Cruz - and not Hillary - whose voters were more poorly distributed for the EC.
Clinton 47.7% 279Cruz 48.8% 259
