Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,093
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: September 09, 2017, 05:00:33 PM » |
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No, not necessarily - but it is probably more likely than not in the current and short-term political climate.
AZ flipping in 2018/2020 will probably be contingent upon a good investment and ground-game by both the party and one or more candidates, and resources tend to go where there is the greatest concentration of people. This means that a disproportionate share of gains relative to 2014/2016 would probably come out of Maricopa.
If we base it off of previous election results, then the answer is obviously no - with an important caveat. Obama did better in non-Maricopa AZ in both 2008 and 2012 than in Maricopa, but he didn't come close to winning the state either time. There's probably not enough raw vote potential in the remainder of the state to close a 10-point gap on its own - certainly more in Maricopa overall - and so any scenario where the state is truly in play is likely being fueled by larger-than-average gains in Phoenix.
In a world of uniform swings, yes, AZ could fall into the Democratic column by a point or two while still leaving Maricopa in the GOP column by a point or two...but based on recent trends, it's probably more likely that Maricopa falls into the Democratic column by a point or two while the remainder of the state remains lean GOP.
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