Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Adam Griffin]

Chautauqua just dropped about 225 votes: 79-20 Estes (83-13 Trump). That's probably most of the votes out of there.

[Adam Griffin]

Pratt fully reporting: 64-34 Estes (74-20 Trump)

[Adam Griffin]

Two-thirds of all outstanding precincts are in Sedgwick.-

[Adam Griffin]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Goddamnit DDHQ get your names right

[Adam Griffin]

ew last batch was rough.

what is the current lead for estes?

52.1-46.1% Estes

[Adam Griffin]

You also have to remember that this is a special election. A lot of people probably don't even know that there is an election. According to the SOS numbers right now, 62 people voted in Pawnee County?

62.

That county was 1,904 for Trump 579 for Clinton.

And 62 people voted today.

Only a small portion of Pawnee County is in KS-4.

And the GOP historically has demonstrated a much higher propensity of voting in special elections relative to their actual numbers.

[Adam Griffin]

Just to put it into perspective, let's look at all of the House districts where the 2016 Democratic vote was greater than the 2014 GOP vote. There are approximately 75 GOP-held districts that would flip in a scenario where you have presidential Dem turnout versus GOP midterm turnout:



And KS-04 isn't even one of them.

[Adam Griffin]

✓ Estes (R) - 57,954 - 52.0%
Thompson (D) - 51,494 - 46.2%
Rockhold (L) 1,911 - 1.7%

94% reporting (580 of 620 precincts)

What a pathetic showing by the Libertarian. I expected them to peel off more disaffected Republicans.

Disaffected Republicans just end up not voting in these types of elections.

[Adam Griffin]

Could someone construct a swing map of the counties?

[Adam Griffin]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

Jeez. So my prediction about ED vote being overwhelmingly GOP was right?

It appears that about one-third of Sedgwick's vote was EV; two-thirds ED. IIRC, Thompson won EV by about 22 points, so this would mean Estes won ED by about 10.

[Adam Griffin]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

Jeez. So my prediction about ED vote being overwhelmingly GOP was right?

It appears that about one-third of Sedgwick's vote was EV; two-thirds ED. IIRC, Thompson won EV by about 22 points, so this would mean Estes won ED by about 10.

Yes.  The Sedgwick County early vote was about 61-39 Thompson.  The Sedgwick County election day vote was about 55-45 Estes (ignoring third parties and write-ins).

To add to my original post and in regard to badger's characterization (and of course it is relative), I wouldn't consider winning ED votes in Sedgwick by 10 to be "overwhelming", necessarily. Trump carried the county overall by 18.

[Adam Griffin]

Should Ds reconsider messaging on guns? Both Kander & Thompson featured guns in their ads and seemed to really break thru in rural areas even if its a small difference.

Absolutely. This more than abortion is what has slammed them in rural areas

I can tell you that in my rural area, abortion is cited as the #1 reason why people don't vote for Democrats...but most of that attitude comes from ardent Republicans. When you start asking about which issue matters most to those who can or do actually sway, it's definitely guns. It wouldn't hurt us at all to run as the "pro-abortion" party here, but if you run as the "anti-gun" party, you can lose a substantial chunk of even your otherwise loyal Democrats.

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats poured MILLIONS into this seat. MILLIONS.

Republicans didn't.

Estes sleepwalked through the campaign.

"Estes was a particularly weak candidate. As a member of Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration, he scored a 2 of 10 score on candidate strength."

For reasons pointed out by other posters, you've crossed the line from being a hack to an outright idiot. Quit posting.

No.

Somebody lacks reading comprehension.

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2017/04/flurry-of-spending-in-kansas-4th/

[Adam Griffin]

Should Ds reconsider messaging on guns? Both Kander & Thompson featured guns in their ads and seemed to really break thru in rural areas even if its a small difference.

Absolutely. This more than abortion is what has slammed them in rural areas

I can tell you that in my rural area, abortion is cited as the #1 reason why people don't vote for Democrats...but most of that attitude comes from ardent Republicans. When you start asking about which issue matters most to those who can or do actually sway, it's definitely guns. It wouldn't hurt us at all to run as the "pro-abortion" party here, but if you run as the "anti-gun" party, you can lose a substantial chunk of even your otherwise loyal Democrats.

We're not pro-abortion, nor should we run as it, even if it doesn't hurt.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semantics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anal_retentiveness

[Adam Griffin]

Is there anywhere that has precinct-by-precinct results yet?

[Adam Griffin]

Is there anywhere that has precinct-by-precinct results yet?

Here's Sedgwick, anyway:

2017


2016 President


Swing


Turnout as Percent of 2016 President

OK, cool. Yeah, I was thinking about doing a swing map for the CD but it looks like you're already ahead of me.

[Adam Griffin]

OH's gerrymander is intense - as shown by my little project of comparing Dem/GOP vote totals across midterms/presidential elections. It's almost as bad as Wisconsin's, and probably would be worse if OH only had a single-digit number of CDs. If you take 2016 Democratic vote totals and stack it up against 2014 GOP midterm vote totals*, only one district flips: OH-1. This is alongside a broader, national scenario where Democrats win the House 271-164.

[Adam Griffin]

GA State Senate results?

There's been discussion in the GA-6 thread.

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)         56.98%   18,602
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)  43.02%   14,046

The margin in this district is almost identical to Trump's margin (13).

[Adam Griffin]

^Not seeing numbers anywhere. AP doesn't have it (which is what NYT uses), and neither does the SOS or DDHQ.

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)         55.43%    7,920
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)  44.57%    6,368

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/69574/Web02-state/#/

The Fulton County part of the district is all in. The Cobb County part still reporting.  Kirkpatrick should have this.

For reference, Ossoff got 43% in the jungle primary in the area overlapping this. I think it might be fair to say that this area in general is no longer rock ribbed

So a first-time Democratic candidate running a pretty bare-bones campaign financially-speaking managed to basically a) match Clinton's margin and b) match Ossoff's share of the vote here in a runoff held separately from the congressional runoff. That says a lot, even before considering she got close to 45% of the vote in one of the most historically-GOP areas of the state.

Maybe "the Discrepancy" (as I've called it) involving metro ATL voters being more GOP downballot is finally starting to dissolve...or maybe it dissolves whenever an incumbent is out of the picture and the area(s) start voting more like what demography would suggest.  

[Adam Griffin]

Grey = partial precincts; many had huge swings that painted an inaccurate picture, so I just colored them grey instead.