GA-JMC Enterprises: Clinton +7

[Adam Griffin]

Clinton 44%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

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Poll Results

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ But in the meantime...

 

[Adam Griffin]

Just added some of the crosstabs to OP:

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Clinton getting 12% in North Georgia with 28% undecided. LOL.

To be fair...that has to be way off compared to their other regions; the undecideds are way too high. Not to mention that there's almost no way Trump cracks 80% in any single county (other than maybe Gilmer/Franklin) in their "North Georgia" region, which is shown on the final page of the poll (the two green slivers bordering TN/AL & SC). It's not even 5% of the state's electorate; I guess they defined it this way because they used media markets as a way to break down the state. With such a small sample size, the undecideds being so large isn't surprising.



What's even more incredible is the huge area defined as "Atlanta" (all of the pink)...and the fact that Clinton is leading there by 10. That area includes most of what would be considered "North Georgia", including the vast majority of the heavily-GOP areas of the state by population and all of the northern counties where Trump could possibly hit 80%.

[Adam Griffin]

Interesting...this doesn't seem to be a Dem hack firm. They had Trump +16 in Louisiana back in May and Trump +5 in Florida in early July.

They're actually a lean-GOP firm. They had Vitter down 4 in their last LA-Gov poll before he lost by 12

Their LA polling toward the end was weird. That last one where JBE was up 4 was released three days after they released one showing JBE up by 15...and one a couple of weeks before that with him up by 20. =/

[Adam Griffin]

You know GA better than I do obviously. Does that big region they define as Metro Atlanta contain 2/3 of the state's population? That seems to be a lot bigger than other definitions of Metro Atlanta I've seen (Fulton and DeKalb as core Atlanta and the suburbs like Gwinnett and Cobb as the rest of the ATL metro)

^^^ 64.7% of the state's 2010 population; 66.7% of 2008 vote.

[Adam Griffin]

Interesting. I wonder when RCP is going to show the first Hillary Clinton true lead in their statewide charts.

Judging by their 5 most recent polls (which is their formula for measurement; they do not include this poll as of now...and it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't, as they seem to be a lot pickier with polls that show Democratic leads than Republican ones), the two oldest polls in that line-up (Fox5 & PPP) would have to fall off and be replaced by two new polls that combined show a Clinton advantage. The three most recent polls (WXIA, WSB & AJC) literally cancel each other out with their results of +4 Clinton, Tie & +4 Trump.

[Adam Griffin]

I've seen them cherry-pick from individual pollsters before, hence my comments. They may end up adding this one - it seems there is usually a delay or a day or two for some polls. What's weird is that in the past, I've noticed that GOP-friendly polls usually get added right away, while those that are not may be added to the database some days after the fact (presumably to give time for other, less favorable polls to release and minimize the period of time that a Dem-favorable poll might skew the result).