Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,090
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
|
 |
« on: March 20, 2016, 09:05:13 PM » |
|
There have been simulations that show that in a close national PV contest, the Democrats have about 10x the chance of winning the EC while losing the PV as the Republicans. So if Dems have a 0.5% chance of winning the EC while losing the PV by 1 point, the Republicans only have a 0.05% chance of doing the same. This is of course built on the political geography of the past decade or so. Even if this were to have applied in the past, the GOP has won the EC while losing the PV 4 times; Democrats have won the EC while losing the PV 0 times. The (potential) advantage obviously is not permanent.
|
Poll
