Hispanic Romney Voters and 2016 (user search)
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  Hispanic Romney Voters and 2016 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Hispanic Romney Voters and 2016  (Read 2015 times)
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
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Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: February 28, 2016, 07:34:06 PM »

Maybe. But what if more Hispanics vote in 2016 then did in 2012? That could make that 27% into 22%.

Yeah, this is the correct answer. Unless you count Asian voters (which are still such a relatively small segment of the voting bloc that their numbers are bound to explode from cycle to cycle), Latinos are the fastest growing segment of actual voting bloc and population. Trump will likely cause magical things to happen with regards to Latino turnout; a 2-point increase in their share of the electorate fueled by fear of Trump could be enough to add 2-3 points to the overall Latino Democratic share of the vote (although it might also be a backstop to any shifts away from a non-Obama candidate).

Another way to look at it is this: as the Latino share of the electorate grows, Democrats can afford to lose support among them. Getting 70% of the Latino vote when they comprise 10% of the electorate has the same impact (margin-wise; nominal) as getting 66% of the Latino vote when they comprise 12% of the electorate; 63% at 15% of the electorate, and so forth.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2016, 09:58:39 PM »

Just posting this here to "show my work" from my previous comment. Based on a constant pool of 130,000,000 voters.

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