GA Landmark/WSB-TV: Clinton 72 Sanders 20, Trump 32 Rubio 23 Cruz 19

[Adam Griffin]

Meh, I think it's off...but not by a considerable amount. With the exception of maybe Mississippi and Louisiana, Georgia was always going to be Sanders' worst state. It's more metropolitan status when compared to other Southern states is cancelled out by the sheer blackness of its Democratic primary electorate and the fact that a lot of those supposedly "different" suburban residents are in fact Republicans.

We'll really have an idea once we see what happens in South Carolina. I've said Sanders needs 35% in SC (based on a 55% black electorate; around 30% of the black vote & close to a majority of the non-black vote) to maintain the media narrative he needs to keep going. Georgia's electorate should be a few points blacker, but running those adjusted numbers...it only makes a point or so difference.

Georgia isn't being contested by Sanders (or by Clinton) so I'd round down to 30% as being what he needs here. Unlike SC, there isn't tons of media attention and campaigning; the electorate will be less informed on the candidates, generally-speaking, and that will of course benefit Clinton. He'll probably fall short in Georgia when it comes to my "magic number", but there are a dozen states to soften that underperformance on Super Tuesday. I suspect Sanders will get something in the range of 26-28%.

[Adam Griffin]

I actually just saw a Hillary ad the other day around noon at my work gym She is working to rack up the margins.

Very smart.  Ad spending is most effective when its unopposed.  Sanders is just going to let Clinton walk all over him in the South.

For what it's worth, I checked PoliticalAdSleuth to see the numbers just now (since the announcement was made several days ago but the ads hadn't been purchased yet).

I couple of the FCC links were broken, but from what I could see, approximately $34,000 in airtime has been purchased - almost all of it in the Macon media market - which, save for Atlanta, is the only media market in the state that doesn't have at least one-third to one-half of its audience in other states. That'll get her some exposure in said media market, but...she's not really reaching saturating the state or anything - or even Macon. For her to play in ATL would cost at least ten times that for any sustained period of time.

I would have thought given those petty expenditures, she would have bought at least a few ads in the Chattanooga media market. Probably 80%+ of it covers North Georgia and Southeastern Tennessee and it's a media market 50% larger than Macon's, but there aren't any that I saw.

Georgia's a big state - geographically and otherwise - and making a $34,000 ad buy in a media market that reaches potentially less than 10% of the state's households isn't really anything serious.

[Adam Griffin]

It was in Midtown Atlanta, maybe either ESPN or CNN or the local channels (all that the gym plays). If that's not shown in the data, perhaps they don't have the granularity to see as much as they think. I've only seen it once though.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/02/22/hillary-clintons-campaign-features-morgan-freeman-in-new-georgia-ad/

It wasn't this ad that was targeted at the "black belt". It was one that mentioned her reducing nuclear weapons, her healthcare advocacy, etc.

A couple of the ones I saw were very small ad buys in ATL for less than $3,000. Such a small buy is probably only going to get you 1 or 2 runs there, so that's probably why you haven't seen it more than once. Like I said, there were 3 broken links (out of about 23) where I couldn't see what was going on. As far as I know, all of their data is aggregated from the FCC on a daily basis - if an ad is bought in the morning, then it's generally on there by evening. The documents I inspected were the actual documents submitted to the FCC and PoliticalAdSleuth links directly to the FCC.gov PDFs. Any airtime they buy has to be submitted, as I understand it.