Are young voters in play?

[Adam Griffin]

Obama won well over 60% of the primary vote against Clinton in 2008.

Thus far, Sanders has out-performed Obama with 18-29 year-olds (84% in IA for Sanders among this group, versus 81% for Obama). I highly doubt this will continue to be the case as we move into more diverse states, but it's also worth noting that despite the fact that millennials are the most diverse generation racially-speaking, the racial gap in the 18-29 group between the Democratic candidates seems to be a lot smaller than it is overall (just like with the gender gap); it's mostly being fueled by older voters, who are a disproportionate chunk of the primary vote. It's also worth noting that the 18-29 bloc of registered voters who vote in primaries is quite a bit whiter than the 18-29 population group - it wouldn't surprise me if it mirrors the national population (63% white or so).

18-29 whites are likely going to be a bit more for Sanders than Obama; 18-29 non-whites will be less so. Even though non-whites will at most make up 40% of this group, their swing away from Sanders will probably be more in net terms than whites' swing toward Sanders. In the end, Sanders does a bit worse than Obama in the primary, but I don't think Sanders falls below 60% with the 18-29 demographic.