Yard signs - proven to be decisive!

[Adam Griffin]

I read a study several years ago on the matter and have been operating under it ever since. Essentially, the findings were "if you deploy 2x as many yard signs in a given area as your opponent, then you'll increase your share of the vote by 1 point in an urban area, 2 points in a suburban area and 3 points in a rural area".

However, considering the...turf where I have been been involved with campaigns (urban areas and very Republican areas), I usually advise to forgo much spending on yard signs, as the benefit is negligible in urban areas and in Republican areas, the Republican tends to have a combination of very deep pockets and very little modern political sense, which means of course that he or she will be buying thousands of dollars of signs. Best to spend the money elsewhere.

Now, let me read this article and see what it says!

[Adam Griffin]

Nothing really surprising to me there. The "1.7 percentage point" increase in the share of the vote falls right down the middle of what I've been using (3 for rural, 2 for suburban, 1 for urban). In addition, it articulates clearly the concept that signs do not motivate people to vote, but rather can affect how reliable voters vote; persuasion, not turnout.