Could Obama have won in a less diverse America?

[Adam Griffin]

I ran the calculations to determine this. I also used the NYT calculator in a reverse-engineered fashion to get an idea of how states would have adjusted in 2012. With a 2012 electorate, proportionate reductions in voting population among all non-white groups and with every group voting the same way, the electorate couldn't be more than 77% white in order for Obama to tie in the PV and win with a slim 272-266 victory in the EC.

This electorate would be practically identical to the 2004 electorate, meaning John Kerry could have narrowly won under 2012 support conditions.


With 2008 levels of support by race, however, Obama would have definitely won with a 80% white electorate. In fact, it's possible that he could have won with an up to 84% white electorate, as the appropriate national PV calculations show that he would still have been slightly above 49% in such a scenario.

84.0 White * 0.43 = 36.12
8.2 Black * 0.97 = 7.95
5.8 Latino * 0.66 = 3.82
2.0 Other * 0.60 = 1.2

100 Electorate = 49.09% Obama